Isn’t NASCAR’s “win-and-you’re-in” playoff system a bit unfair? The driver who has shown consistency and speed and gained valuable points has no meaning in front of the winner of a race, be it the 40th driver from the table. Some argue that this makes the competition more uncertain and thrilling, which is true because it changes the dynamics for many in the points table.

This is exactly what happened after the Daytona race, where Harrison Burton’s victory earned him an automatic playoff berth. As a result, the battle for the final playoff spots has become even more intense, with only three spots now available. The question is, who will progress to the next part of the Series and who won’t?

Competition is fierce in the Bubble

Daytona is a challenging track for Bubble drivers, as it is difficult to overtake the superspeedway because of the massive drag. Moreover, many were desperate for a good finish or a win. Everyone was racing hard. The close proximity of cars led to chain-reaction crashes, even if the initial incident was far from their position. Unfortunately, all the Bubble drivers were involved in one or the other wreck.

Ross Chastain and Martin Truex Jr. were caught up in the chaos caused by the crash that led to a series of secondary collisions, including one between Noah Gragson and Corey LaJoie. Truex later also had a tire blowout at the same time when Shane Van Gisbergen’s car was in flames, Bubba Wallace and Chris Buescher were also involved in a crash started by Michael Mcdowel while leading the race. The last wreck where Josh Berry spun, flipped, and hit the wall, roped in Bubba and Ty Gibbs. However, the good news was that despite these incidents, all four drivers were able to continue racing. As getting points was crucial for all of them.

At the end of the race, Ty Gibbs finished fifth behind him Bubba Wallace finished sixth, Chris Buescher finished tenth, Ross Chastain came in 12th, and Martin Truex finished 24th. While their positions in the points standings remained the same as they entered the race, the point differences between them changed. Let’s look at how the points have altered things:

• Martin Truex Jr, who had a 77-point lead over the cutline before Daytona, now has a 58-point lead. While this is still a comfortable margin, a bad race at Darlington would not put him at much risk.

• Ty Gibbs maintained his position, 39 points above the cutline. He entered the Daytona race with +39 points. His strong P5 finish is the reason why he has a decent cushion too going into Darlington.

• Chris Buescher‘s performance improved after Daytona. He entered with a +16 points above the cutoff line, he has bettered it to +21. He finished third and ninth in the stages, respectively, and finished tenth overall. Despite his strong showing, Buescher was disappointed not to win the race like he did last year and secure a playoff spot.

• Bubba Wallace‘s position in the standings, on the other hand, worsened after Daytona. He entered the race one point behind the cutline but now has a 21-point deficit. Had a new winner not emerged, Bubba would have been above the cutoff line. Wallace has a good average finish at Darlington and is aiming for a victory to improve his position.

• Ross Chastain‘s position in the standings also worsened after Daytona. He entered the race one point above the cutline but now has a 27-point deficit. His chances to make it to the playoffs on points seem unlikely.

If only points of battle were to be considered, it is most likely only between Bubba and Buescher. Who will take the 16 spot? or will there even be a 16th spot after Darlington? As a new winner would again change things.

Who will take the final 16th spot?

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After the race, Bubba was disappointed with his performance, more so because his teammate Tyler Reddick has had a great season so far. In a post-race interview, he said, “Got one car fighting for a regular season championship and another on the bubble. It’s unacceptable. I’ll take all that weight on my shoulders.” However, he is positive about changing things going into Darlington, as he said, “I should’ve won multiple times and I haven’t. We don’t even deserve to be here, and we aren’t. Gotta go win, that’s it,”

On the other hand, Buescher was super confident going into the next race. Reiterating this, he said, “We know we were really good there last time. Try and seal the deal this go-around and make it easy going into the Playoffs.” Why would he be? Bubba is in trouble. It would be tough for the #23 to cover the 21-point lead. On top of that, for him to have a chance, Buescher must have a poor finish (like a DNF or low 20s) in Darlington, whereas Wallace will need an exceptional finish, a top-3 minimum.

Compared to the #17, Bubba’s chances seem slim.back inn 2023, Wallace got a P7 at Darlington and Buescher got a P3. However, the #23 team should not lose hope. As NASCAR is a game of uncertainties. What do you think will happen? Who will qualify for the playoffs? Let us know in the comments below.