The two-week-long Olympics break serves as a good mid-season break for the NASCAR Cup Series. This allows the teams and drivers to look back at their run so far after 22 races. Despite 12 drivers already locking themselves into the playoffs, the business isn’t finished until we have our final 16 drivers.

With only four spots left in the upcoming four regular-season races, the race to secure them is heating up. The likes of Chris Buescher, Bubba Wallace, and Ross Chastain are in this mix. Going by their recent performances, the 23XI Racing star finds himself in a good spot, but, on the other hand, there’s no respite for Rowdy as he keeps tumbling down in the pecking order.

Bubba Wallace is likely to secure his playoff berth

Martin Truex Jr and Ty Gibbs are also in the mix, as they are yet to secure a win this season. But the veteran JGR driver has a 108-point advantage, while Gibbs is next on the list with a buffer of 42 points. So these two are expected to make the two spots unless there is a big shocker or major upset on the cards.

So the battle for the final two spots is seen between the trio of Buescher, Wallace, and Chastain. Going by their recent run and statistical battle, Bubba Wallace seems to have made a lot of ground in securing his spot in the knockout stages. This was highlighted by NASCAR insider Kyle Dalton on his show “Beating and Banging” via YouTube.

“The 23XI Racing driver has been solid over the last five races, with his low light coming with a 34th place at New Hampshire. But he’s followed that up with three top 10 results in the last four races to come in at fifth overall in our last five races analysis at 13.8. Conversely, Chastain has struggled with an AFP of 23.2, including two finishes of 33rd or worse at Nashville and Pocono.”

Buescher is a close second with two top-five finishes in the last five races, with an AFP of 12.8. The No. 17 Ford Mustang is likely to find a win in the upcoming four races, as speed hasn’t been a concern for them, but luck has. Not to forget, Kyle Busch is also in the running to salvage his season, and the last four races in the regular season could present him with that opportunity.

A redemption run by Rowdy seems unlikely based on the statistics

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Kyle Busch, driving the No. 8 RCR Chevy, is arguably having the worst season of his NASCAR Cup Series career. He went from being a competitive racer to a bystander racing in mid-pack in the 22 starts he made in 2024. He’s only managed five top-ten finishes so far and is currently sitting 18th in the points standings. While the idea of him being able to go all out in the remaining four races is optimistic, that quickly simmers down in front of his bleak numbers.

To put Rowdy’s season in perspective, he is 119 points off the cutline, and the only realistic way he can ensure his qualification for the knockout stages is by winning. But that is a big ask of the driver and a team that has been unable to mount a race-winning package in the last five races. In fact, he has only registered one top-10 finish during this period, bringing his AFP to 25.6. At this rate, he wouldn’t make the cut on points; and, to be honest, a win looks like a far-fetched dream for the #8 team too. But there’s always hope!

The NASCAR Cup Series action resumes on August 11 at the Richmond Raceway, and the Southern 500 will serve as the regular season finale this time around on September 1.