The Olympic break is wrapping up, and racing action is set to roar back to life at the iconic Richmond Raceway. With only four races left in the regular season—Richmond, Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington—the stakes couldn’t be higher. The race for the final playoff spots is heating up, with Ross Chastain and Bubba Wallace battling fiercely for that crucial 16th place.

For Ross Chastain and the #1 team, this season has been a tough ride. Winless so far and struggling with consistency, Chastain has only managed 2 top-five and 7 top-ten finishes. His recent performances have been particularly disappointing, with him finishing 33rd, 22nd, and 36th at the Tricky Triangle, and 15th at the Brickyard. This isn’t the Ross Chastain we’ve come to expect.

Since joining Trackhouse Racing in 2022, Chastain led the relatively new team to the Championship 4 at Phoenix, marking their best season to date. Last year, he managed to score two victories. But this season has been a different story, and fans are eager to see if he can turn things around in these final races.

On the other hand, his teammate Daniel Suarez has managed to get a win in Atlanta, securing at least one spot for the team. Adding to the success of his teammate, if Chastain sees in his rearview mirror, he’ll see a fast-approaching 23XI driver, Bubba Wallace.

According to a recent analysis by Eric Estepp, Ross Chastain has dropped his average finish position in the last four races, whereas Bubba has gained it in the same time frame. This gives us a clear picture. Estepp said; “Like Ross Chastain has an average finish of 26.5 in the last four races, Bubba in that same span has an average finish of 8.7, 18 positions better that’s why Bubba Wallace has closed the Gap. He was 60 points back or something like not that long ago.”

The 23XI driver is known to have a wonderful comeback story at a crucial time of the series. As we know, stats don’t lie; although Wallace too is going winless, he’s got better consistency than Chastain. He has four top-5 finishes and eight top-10s. What’s crucial is that he’s riding on a high note, as in his last four races he finished 7th, 13th, and 10th in Pocono and 5th on the iconic Brickyard.

Unrelated to the NASCAR Cup series, Bubba Wallace also got a P2 in a Legends race, putting him on cloud nine, and increasing problems for the track house team. What is crucial to note here is that Chastain has dropped several places in the last few races.

If we look at the current standings in the playoff scenario. Chastain is +7 points in the 16th position, barely above the cutoff line. On the other hand, Bubba Wallace is -7 in the 17th position, inches away from overtaking Chastain and taking the final spot in the playoff grid. About Bubba, Estepp also said, “He may be seven points out of the playoffs currently but finally, we’ve got a team that’s red hot the numbers.”

Who is most likely to succeed in the next four races

Talking about their finish in the last season at the four races remaining. At the last Richmond race, Bubba Wallace finished 12th and Chastain was in 24th. In Michigan, Wallace was in 18th and Chastain in 7th. Going to Daytona, Bubba got a P12, whereas Chastain finished in p17.

Tables again turn in the Darlington race, where Bubba crossed the finish line at 7th. However, Ross Chastain topped his with a P5. So in the 2023 season, the score was two all when it comes to the last four races. The competition between the two is going to be fierce; however, Bubba seems to currently have the edge over pace and consistency.

Additionally, their chances in the playoffs will also depend on the performance of others who are in the bubble.

1. First up is Martin Truex Jr., who can relax for now as he’s 108 points clear of the cutoff line. As for Ty Gibbs and Chris Buescher, things can get tricky. Gibbs is only 47 points above the cutoff line, and Buescher is 17 points above.
2. Things for Buescher might actually improve, as Estepp also discussed in his video, as he’s had great finishes in the last four races in the 2023 season. He won all three at Richmond, Michigan, and Daytona and almost won at Darlington with a P3 finish. So he would be looking to repeat that. 
3. As for the ones below the cutoff line, other than Bubba Wallace for the rest, things look a bit far at the moment. Behind him is Chase Briscoe, who is trailing by 83 points, and two-time NASCAR Cup Series Champion Kyle Busch is trailing by 112 points. However, the current scenarios can completely change if we get new winners in the last four races. A new, comfortable Truex Jr. can also get thrown out.

The uncertainties are what makes NASCAR what it is. Are you excited for the last four races of the regular season? Let us know in the comments below.