The rumble of stock cars will echo through the Appalachian foothills this weekend, as NASCAR gears up for the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. But a dark cloud is brewing on the horizon, threatening the night-time festivities at Bristol. According to raceweather.net, led by Chief Meteorologist Dr. Aaron Studwell, there’s a growing chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms rolling through the Tri-Cities area on Saturday.

Likewise, AccuWeather predicts only a 23% chance of precipitation. However, rains at the ‘Last Great Colosseum’ have been as unpredictable as a late-race caution in the past.

Bristol under the lights + rain + desperate drivers = chaos?

Here’s the breakdown: those heavy rain showers that hammered western North Carolina the past few days are now flirting with the eastern Tennessee region. Friday’s looking like a picture-perfect day for racing. Hopefully, sunny skies and highs around 77°F will make it the perfect weather to witness the Food City 300 Xfinity Series regular-season finale. But come Saturday, things get a little dicey. Dr. Studwell says there’s a chance a stray storm could wander in and disrupt the Cup race, scheduled to go green at 7:30 PM EDT. Regardless, the good news is that, as of right now, most of the rain clouds are hanging over the north and east of the track.

So, how does all this affect the Round of 16 finale? Studwell admits their weather models are still struggling to pinpoint the exact timing and intensity of the rain. But pack an umbrella just in case, because when NASCAR brings out the wet weather package, under the lights, in Bristol, there’s bound to be more than a few highlight reel moments. Add to that the pressure of elimination from the Playoffs. Now, that will surely make at least a few drivers desperate. And if Mother Nature holds off, at least the temperatures will be perfect to witness some signature short-track racing.

Also, while there’s no need to panic, AccuWeather is “looking ahead” to thunderstorms in Bristol by Monday afternoon. But inclement weather and Bristol have always had a bit of a complicated history. Rains have made a cameo in at least 16 of the last 21 Cup races on the “World’s Fastest Half-Mile”. Even last year’s Night Race, where Denny Hamlin took the checkered flag, saw the start time bumped to 6:30 PM on Saturday because of–you guessed it–rain showers. A few months later, at the Food City 500, Hamlin won once again. But in this instance, it wasn’t the weather, but the tires that frightened everyone with their unnatural fall-off rate on a cooler concrete surface.

Thankfully, NASCAR’s official tire partners seem to have prepared well in advance for Bristol this time. And because of it, we might witness something truly special happen over the weekend.

Who will survive the Round of 16? Mother Nature concurs with Goodyear

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This year, for the first time, NASCAR and Goodyear will have a stock of 18-inch wet weather tires on standby in case the skies open up at the Bristol Night Race. Teams will have 4 sets of these white-lettered radials. Hence, tire strategy could turn out crucial under wet conditions. Richmond Raceway saw the wet weather package debut on an oval track for the first time in March earlier this year. Cars took to the damp track on these rain tires for the opening laps before things dried out. Interestingly, a Joe Gibbs Racing driver, Denny Hamlin, took the checkered in that race.

Then in June came New Hampshire, where the longest wet-weather stint in NASCAR oval track history went down. The race ran for 219 laps without a hitch, but storms eventually stopped the party with 82 laps to go. After a two-hour red flag, these wet weather tires navigated the remaining distance, with another JGR driver, Christopher Bell, taking the win. So, the question on everyone’s mind is: will Bristol see its first wet-weather race this weekend? Only Mother Nature could answer that question. But if rains affect the events at Bristol on Saturday, could a JGR driver be eyeing a potential three-peat on the high banks of Bristol? Keep an eye on that #11 car this weekend.