NASCAR will be racing at the Charlotte ROVAL in just a few days! That means Kaulig Racing’s Shane van Gisbergen and AJ Allmendinger hold a real possibility of causing an upset in the 2024 Playoffs. Sure, the 17-Turn brand-new road course layout at Charlotte Motor Speedway is bound to throw a curveball at those predicting an easy victory. But make no mistake—the road-course specialists are raring to go, eager to show the world just how well these ‘Next-Gen’ machines navigate those right turns.

However, given Chris Buescher’s disruptive win at the Watkins Glen road course a few weeks ago, his employer/colleague at RFK, Brad Keselowski, has revealed an interesting detail. Would you believe the #17 driver is unironically the highest-averaging road course racer in the Next-Gen era? Well, he is, but that’s not all. His team owner suggests Buescher’s road course prowess equals that of 3x Cup champion, Tony Stewart.

The Chris Buescher-Tony Stewart road course connection

Some might say that comparing Chris Buescher to Tony Stewart is a bit of a stretch. Yes, the talent is there most definitely. And at 31, he still has time to build a legacy that might rival Smoke’s. But over 50 wins across NASCAR’s top-3 National Touring competitions, with a few more in IndyCar, and championships in both those disciplines might prove hard to replicate for Buescher. Heading to Charlotte this weekend, the Texas native has only 6 NASCAR Cup Series wins to show for at the highest level. Still, the discrepancies between both those drivers stick out like a sore thumb.

Regardless, can Buescher make it number seven at the ROVAL? That question has been on the minds of many diehards, especially after that hard-fought road course win at the Glen a few weeks earlier against Shane van Gisbergen. Beating a 3x V8 Supercars champion is no joke, especially at their own game. Hence, Brad Keselowski believes, “Chris Buescher is one of the most naturally-talented road course racers I’ve been around. He doesn’t care to accept that, but it’s true from the get-go.”

But Big Brad isn’t making inferences out of the blue. With twelve top-10s and one win, Buescher is the highest-averaging finisher (7.2) on road courses in the Gen-7 car. What’s his secret? According to Keselowski, “[Buescher] just has a natural knack and a feel for a car on road courses that reminds me of a Tony Stewart. If his career path had taken him that route, he’d be a top-of-the-line road course racer right now in IMSA or IndyCar.”

Hearing such things from a former Cup Series champion is indeed high praise. The Tony Stewart comparison is only icing on the cake. Stewart has won the second-most road course races in the highest tier of NASCAR with 8. Ironically, only Jeff Gordon has more non-oval wins than Stewart at 9. As for Buescher, who secured his first NASCAR win at the Mid-Ohio road course in a 2014 Xfinity Series race, he has a long road ahead to match those illustrious records.

But with an average finish of 5.3 in the last three Charlotte ROVAL races coming, the question remains: can those numbers get better, courtesy of another Chris Buescher spoiler win in 2024? If they do, the next question arises: how will a non-playoff driver winning again affect the Round of 8 cutoff race?

Could a ROVAL rematch shock the playoffs?

As it stands before Charlotte, Joey Logano (-13), Daniel Suárez (-20), Austin Cindric (-29), and Chase Briscoe (-32) are the drivers sitting below the elimination cutline. Tyler Reddick (+14) and Chase Elliott (+13), who, oddly enough, trail Buescher as the second and third-highest-averaging road racers in the Next-Gen era, are most at risk of falling below the cutline.

Interestingly, ‘The Racing Experts’ are giving all these drivers odds over +1000 to win the Bank of America ROVAL 400 this Sunday. However, they predict Buescher, with Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell, having a +350 shot at finishing inside the top 5. For those concerned, Shane van Gisbergen has the highest odds of winning the race at +550. It remains to be seen how these forecasts play out for those willing to dare when it matters.

Now, on the flip side of Keselowski’s praises for Chris Buescher lies another interesting detail. The RFK owner and driver of the team’s #6 car, a thorough NASCAR veteran at 40 years of age, has never won a road race in his Cup Series career. But come Sunday, he will have an equal chance, just like Chris Buescher and all those drivers mentioned above, to take his car to Victory Lane.

So will a Ford go back-to-back on a non-oval track in 2024 to add to their incredible list of records this year? The #16 Chevy of defending Charlotte ROVAL race winner AJ Allmendinger might have some grievances to raise against that accord. But then again, it could be anyone’s game on the road courses.