Chris Buescher’s spoiler win in Watkins Glen was something out of a Hollywood movie. But if we’re being honest, his teammate/employer, Brad Keselowski, needed it way more than the RFK Racing #17  did last Sunday. Sitting only 12 points beneath the Round of 12 cutoff line, Brad K risks exiting way too early in the postseason if he makes even a single mistake next Sunday.

That is quite a troubling position to be in as a former Cup Series champion. But the 17+ year NASCAR veteran in him knows he’s heading to one of his better short tracks next weekend. As the winningest active Ford driver on the high banks of Bristol, Keselowski’s on the hunt for a familiar sensation. However, his aspirations of making it to the next round of the Playoffs demand him to run flawlessly at the Bass Pro Shops ‘cutoff’ Race.

Familiar track, familiar pressure for Brad Keselowski

At the Night Race, Keselowski will stiff competition from his bubble-mates, Denny Hamlin (-2), Martin Truex Jr. (-14), and Harrison Burton (-20). All those drivers born east of the Mississippi River will have to fight tooth-and-nail in the foreground of the Northern Tennessee mountains for one reason, and one reason only–avoid an early elimination at all costs. But NASCAR’s Playoff format is relentless. Besides rookie Harrison Burton, all three veterans are savvy with the sting of prematurely packing up their championship dreams in the elimination era. And unlike Denny Hamlin, both Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski know what it’s like to go all the way to taste the ultimate prize.

Clearly, the RFK Racing co-owner/driver has seen everything there is to see in stock-car racing. But “Being below the playoff cutoff line is one of the most anxious moments of your life,” said the man in a recent Playoff promo by NASCAR. He elaborated on the implications, and made a casual note of his extensive experience, stating, “I’ve been fortunate enough to win my way out of that hole. I’ve been on the other side of it. Those are tough days that test you to the fullest extent as a person and as a team. And when it goes your way, it is one of the most rewarding feelings you’ll ever have.”

However, “When it doesn’t go your way, it’s sheer disappointment,” admitted Keselowski. When he won the 2012 Sprint Cup championship as a budding 28-year-old Team Penske prospect, the ‘elimination era’ was still a far cry from reality. Ever since its implementation in 2014, Keselowski has reached the Championship 4 race twice in the last decade.

In the same time frame, he’s failed to make it past the second round of elimination only once. That happened in 2022, his first season driving an RFK Ford full-time as the owner-driver. It was one of the most challenging years of Brad Keselowski’s premier-tier career. However, his silver lining came as RFK’s other driver, Chris Buescher, who ironically won the alliance their first-ever race under the lights at Bristol two years ago. 

In his favor, Keselowski has won more races at Bristol (3) than any other active Blue Oval driver. But although his pedigree is well-documented, the competition is more fierce than it’s ever been. It’s not just those vying for a berth in the Round of 12 that the RFK owner-driver must be wary of. All things considered, guys like Kyle Busch, and even Chris Buescher could play the spoiler yet again. And the consequences do not look good for anyone lingering about the bubble.

Hungry outsiders add chaos to the cutoff race

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Chase Briscoe and Ty Gibbs are both only six points separated on the positive side of the cutline. Harrison Burton, the penultimate driver on the bubble, sitting at sixteenth, is only 20 points away from elimination heading to Bristol. If you couldn’t tell already, the margins are slimmer than ever this time around in the NASCAR postseason. Theoretically, if Briscoe and Gibbs wreck out early, either Hamlin, Keselowski, Truex, or Burton would have to run inside the top 5 and finish no lower than that to advance to the next round.

But the likelihood of that happening is still only speculation. Additionally, those circumstances might alter, thanks to someone outside the 16-driver playoff field inching to end their seasons on a positive note in Victory Lane. The winningest active driver on the ‘World’s Fastest Half-Mile’, Kyle Busch could be one of those drivers looking to play spoiler big time in Bristol. However, Chris Buescher’s words after his win last week might open up some interesting conversations in the RFK camp.

In an official statement on NASCAR.com, the #17 driver said, “We have this playoff format that starts, but nobody goes home. We bring the same 36, 38 cars to the racetrack every week. We race the same drivers and teams every week, no matter if there’s a playoff going on or not. Our sport is not like others in that sense. We’re here to race to win. We’re going to play spoiler as much as we can in the next seven or eight weeks coming up as well.”

This week, chaos at the Night Race is being discussed well in advance. If Buescher wishes to play the great disruptor, he could indirectly stack the odds against his team owner’s chances at making the Round of 12. Now, Brad Keselowski is no stranger to beating the odds in shaky situations. Look back to his Round of 8 advance, the first of its kind in 2014, to gain some context. Regardless, he has quite a distinct mountain to climb this Sunday in Bristol, TN.