Ross Chastain is considered a talented and exciting driver in the NASCAR Cup Series. 2022 was arguably his breakout year when he finished 2nd in the championship behind Joey Logano. Paired up with Phil Surgen, Chastain that year had 2 wins, 15 top fives, and 21 top 10s, in 692 laps led.

“I need to continue to evolve and be a better race car driver, study these guys and study myself, see what they’re doing, understand these cars better and understand the craft that it takes to drive at this level and extrapolate the most out of these cars,” is what Ross Chastain said as he concluded his 2022 season.

Next, his form continued in the 2023 season with two wins, including winning the season finale at Phoenix. However, he has been fairly underwhelming since then and has yet to reach Victory Lane in 2024.

Off late, the Trackhouse Racing star has been blowing hot and cold. In the last 10 races, he only recorded three Top 10 finishes, with a best finish of 5th at Sonoma. Admittedly, that one came after he punted Kyle Busch into a spin on the final lap of the race. Other than that, Chastain has not made much of an impression at the front.

This was a contact between the two drivers in a contest for fifth place that sent Busch’s No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevy spinning in Turn 4A, just before the 1.99-mile road course’s chute. Busch recovered for a 12th-place finish, his fourth consecutive finish outside the top 10.

“I’m not sure what happened with the 8, either, I’ll be honest,” Ross Chastain told NASCAR.com. “I’m pretty confused about most things here, but he checked up down into (Turn) 4A. I popped out to not hit him and then I locked up getting in there to his right. So definitely not trying to run into him,” Chastain said post-Sonoma race as Kyle Busch blamed him for another missed opportunity to end his winless streak.

That’s not to say that he is a bad driver, because he most certainly is not. However, something just isn’t adding up at all for the #1 Trackhouse Racing driver. If it is any comfort to him, Daniel Suarez has also been fairly unimpressive. However, what works in the Mexican driver’s favor is that he won at the Atlanta Motor Speedway in that 3-wide dead heat.

Looking at his form guide, the #1 driver has had a poor average finish in the past few races. At New Hampshire, he recorded a 12.3 average, with a best finish of eighth. Nashville only witnessed a slight improvement of 10.3 and a single win in the 2023 season. Meanwhile, his average finishes at Chicago, Pocono, and Indianapolis were 22.0, 28.0, and 15.0, respectively.

Now, at Richmond, which is next on the calendar, Ross Chastain has an average finish of 14.4 and a best finish of 3rd. Could this be his chance to turn things around? Frankly, this could serve as a nice confidence boost for the 31-year-old. Currently, the NASCAR fraternity is enjoying a two-week break from racing because the action resumes at Richmond.

This is because the 2024 Olympic Games are ongoing in Paris. The Games is arguably the biggest sporting event in the world, and all eyes will be on it. It would be a fool’s errand to compete against such a behemoth, just for the sake of ratings. So the wisest course of action was to have a ‘summer break’ and wait for the Olympic games to end.

Ross Chastain’s best chance to sneak a playoff spot

In his Cup Series career, Ross Chastain has only reached Victory Lane four times. He triumphed at the Circuit of the Americas, Talladega, Nashville, and Phoenix. Out of those four, the NASCAR Cup Series will pay a visit to Talladega and Phoenix again, but neither will be during the regular season.

This will easily ramp up the pressure on the #1 Trackhouse Racing driver. For the moment, he sits in 13th place in the standings, which puts him just inside the bubble. However, any NASCAR driver worth his salt will want to win a race for the sake of insurance to secure that berth. There are just four races until the end of the regular season, so Ross Chastain has to win one of these races.

Out of Richmond, Michigan, Daytona, and Darlington, his best finishes came at Darlington and Richmond with 3rd place. Of course, Chastain’s road will be paved with obstacles, chief among them will be his rivals. After all, the likes of Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing are pretty much on song.