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Denny Hamlin is chasing a hat-trick as the final Round of 16 playoff race heads to Bristol Motor Speedway. Currently sitting 13th in the standings, six points below the cutline, Hamlin’s postseason hasn’t been smooth so far. But with back-to-back wins at Bristol in his last two races there, he’s got reason to be optimistic.

NASCAR insider Jeff Hammond, who is a commentator for NASCAR’s coverage on FOX Sports, believes Hamlin’s only real shot at redemption lies in a strong qualifying run. With the 2024 Bass Pro Shops Night Race ahead, Hammond insists good track position is crucial if Hamlin wants to break his playoff slump and make it to the Round of 12.

Jeff Hammond doesn’t want Hamlin to play catch-up at Bristol

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The stakes are sky-high as the final Round of 16 race at Bristol looms, with four drivers set to be eliminated. Denny Hamlin, currently outside the playoff bubble alongside Brad Keselowski, Martin Truex Jr., and Harrison Burton, faces a tough challenge. Once a frontrunner in the Cup Series standings, Hamlin’s form has dipped.

However, Bristol has been good to Hamlin in the past. With little room for error this time, a strong qualifying result could be the key. Here’s what championship crew chief Jeff Hammond believes could make or break Hamlin’s race at the 0.533-mile oval. The NASCAR insider said on the GoPRNLive podcast, “You got to get qualified first. All your plans don’t matter until you get qualified. Even with us in the Truck Series, we were discussing it today. We’ve got to get qualified before we can start thinking about a game plan and what you need to do in the race. If you’re at the back, you’re running for your life when they drop the green flag.”

Speaking of Jeff Hammond, he isn’t just a NASCAR insider; he’s got a long history in the sport. Currently serving as the general manager and crew chief for Freedom Racing Enterprises in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series, alongside his FOX Sports career. He was part of the crew for three championship seasons with legends like Cale Yarborough and Darrell Waltrip.

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However, a six-point gap between Denny Hamlin and 12th-place Ty Gibbs might not seem like much, but Hamlin can’t afford to take it lightly. Recent performances tell the story—24th at Atlanta after a cautious start to the playoffs, followed by multiple wrecks at Watkins Glen, leaving him 23rd. While he’s not in a must-win scenario, the No. 11 Toyota driver needs to nail the basics to secure a solid finish.

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It’s not impossible—especially looking at Bubba Wallace, who overcame a 19-point deficit to reach the Round of 12 in 2023. If Hamlin wins at Bristol, he’ll become the first driver in 20 years to take three straight victories at the track. The last driver to do so was Kurt Busch between 2003 and 2004.

Denny Hamlin is optimistic about his chances

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It’s now or never for Denny Hamlin. Unforeseen circumstances such as wrecks or mechanic issues can cause havoc to his plans of progression into the next round, and momentum hasn’t been on his side in the first two postseason races. The 43-year-old is also missing some of the swagger he had shown after his win at the short track last fall, where he famously went on to say, “I beat your favorite driver. All of them” in the post-race interview.

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Hamlin has the experience to deal with the pressure he will be under in the final Round of 16 race. Reiterating Jeff Hammond’s views about strong qualifying, the Joe Gibbs Racing driver said in the Actions Detrimental podcast, “It’s certainly very, very doable. I think that somewhere in this fifth to 12th, someone’s going to have a real bad day. It always does, there’s always attrition in that Bristol night race. Qualifying will be important. Just run top five all stages, finish top five in the race, get a 47-point day or so, that’ll be plenty. But I’m planning on going there and winning.”

Additionally, he has plenty of reasons to be optimistic. All he needs to do is drive like his usual self, and a spot in the Round of 12 will be an inevitable consequence. However, if something does go wrong for the Joe Gibbs Racing driver, it will be the most embarrassing playoff run of his career so far. With the stakes higher than ever, will Hamlin rise to the occasion on the short track or wilt under pressure?