“I really feel confident that Riley will outperform expectations this year.” Just like that Denny Hamlin dropped a bold prediction about his rookie driver for 2025. Corey Heim was constantly linked with a move to the third 23XI Racing car, but the team surprisingly opted for Riley Herbst. Well, the consensus was that the former SHR driver got the seat thanks to his connection with Monster Energy. Many even wrote the driver off predicting that he will have a disastrous debut season.

While Hamlin might have a bias given that Herbst is driving for his race team, the same cannot be said for Dale Earnhardt Jr. Like most of us, Jr. didn’t fully comprehend how the rookie driver would perform at the big stage. But, looking at his records and at the pace at which 23XI Racing has progressed he feels Herbst will have a solid outing. Even rating him higher than seasoned Cup driver, Cole Custer.

Dale Jr. download predicts Riley Herbst’s performance at debut NASCAR series

Herbst has spent most of his time racing in the Xfinity Series. Interestingly he started with Joe Gibbs Racing and Toyota camp and later transitioned to Stewart Haas Racing. Although, he’s pretty much raced as a mid-pack driver, something changed in the last two years. He started picking up wins and showed real progress. His three wins in the Xfinity Series have all come in the last two seasons. And he certainly seems to have found his mojo and the right company to scale as a driver.

Reflecting on his switch from Xfinity to Cup racing, Dale Jr. predicted how Herbst would perform in the #35 car. “Probably Riley, he’s going to surprise some people. I’ll be honest I did not think much in terms of what his potential was years ago, I didn’t think he was performing well enough in the Xfinity Car but over the last probably year and a half you know something’s clicked and so you have gotta ask yourself because he goes to Vegas and wins and has a couple of other wins in that Xfinity car and you gotta ask yourself at that moment, at least I do.” He said this on the Dale Jr. Download. 

The former SHR driver won two races last year, the first one came at Las Vegas and the second came at Phoenix in the championship race. If anything he will have all the support and resources he needs at 23XI Racing. They have been to the championship race themselves and are seen as serious contenders for race wins every week. Dale Jr. even compared Herbst to Cole Custer, who is returning to the Cup Series after 2022.

“I think Riley is still gonna make some mistakes and Cole will see more checkered flags as he’s going to finish more races so if you’re looking at the end of the year statistics in average finishes or top fives or top 10. I don’t know if they’ll both get any top fives but Cole’s numbers may look better but average running position Riley does a little better,” Jr. added.

This take by  Dale Jr. was indeed surprising as Cole Custer won the Xfinity Series championship in 2023, and finished runner-up last year. Not to forget, Custer already has a Cup Series win to his name that came at Kentucky Speedway, piloting the No. 41 SHR Ford. Perhaps, this is because the Haas Factory Team is still testing the water with their debut appearance. Meanwhile, 23XI Racing is already a proven title contender in the modern era of the sport. And it looks like Herbst is also eager to prove his doubters wrong and take everyone by surprise with his on-track performances.

Herbst is geared up for the challenge to excel in the Cup Series

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At 25, Herbst is still pretty young and has a lot of potential to become a successful race car driver. But, making a leap from Xfinity to Cup Series, nerves are all but natural. Especially when you join a team led by NBA legend Michael Jordan and NASCAR veteran Denny Hamlin. But, the former SHR driver isn’t feeling any weight on his shoulders, rather he is confident going into the Daytona 500 weekend.

“I probably have more confidence than I’m supposed to have at this point… I believe in my talents. I believe in my capabilities, and now I’m at a team that believes in my capabilities as well, and we are looking forward to good things this year, and we know there will be a learning curve, but it is going to be fun. This weekend is going to be fun. This is my first year, rookie year Daytona 500, so this is good stuff.” Riley Herbst explained during the media availability.

Apart from Cole Custer, Herbst will have to go against veteran road racer Shane van Gisbergen. The Kiwi driver is his direct rival when it comes to Rookie of the Year honors, and Herbst would like to sign off his first full-time season with a trophy in his bag.