Vladimir Guerrero Jr., no more a Blue Jay? Might be! Vladdy is expected to be the next Juan Soto of free agency next year. MLB teams are eager to sign a power like him. The Mets have shown keen interest in him, and with their deep pockets, it’s a real possibility. But Vlad might be inclined to some other team! Can you guess?

Guerrero Jr. has set a deadline of February 17th for the Blue Jays to sign an extension with him. If that doesn’t happen, we might witness another Juan Soto-type deal in the coming year. In 159 games last season, Guerrero (debut in 2019) recorded a .323/.396/.544 slash line. He has amassed 21.5 bWAR over six years, and since 2020, he hasn’t missed more than six games in a season. 

In a recent episode of ESPN’s Baseball Tonight, Buster Olney and Paul Hembekides discuss Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s situation. Hembo thinks that it will be the Yankees who will snatch Vladdy away in free agency. But as per Olney, it could be the Mets. Wouldn’t it be fun to watch Juan Soto and Vladdy Jr. go back-to-back? Sure, but it’s a long shot. 

While the Blue Jays fans will be disheartened to hear these two insiders casually naming other teams as a possible landing spot, they can’t deny that he will most likely hit free agency. Hembo’s choice of the Yankees was certainly an interesting one considering what Vladdy thinks of the team. In an interview with Spanish baseball writer Hector Gomez, Vladdy said, “I like to play in New York. I like to kill the Yankees. I would never sign with the Yankees, not even dead.” 

Has that feeling changed since then? We do not know, but the Yanks will surely try to add a proven bat like him to their roster. 

What if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. decides to bypass free agency?

The 26-year-old phenom, just entering his prime, is expected to command well over $400 million, easily surpassing $30 million per year. The question isn’t whether the Jays have the funds (they do—after all, they made a serious run at Juan Soto with a $700 million offer). It is whether they’re willing to take on the kind of long-term financial commitment that comes with locking up a superstar like Guerrero for the foreseeable future. 

The Blue Jays have already made substantial investments this offseason, adding players like Andrés Giménez, Anthony Santander, and Max Scherzer, which has pushed their luxury tax number up to around $273 million—just $28 million below the highest threshold of $301 million. That puts them in a precarious position, especially when the penalties for surpassing that number are steep. While the team has traditionally avoided crossing the line, Guerrero Jr.’s potential extension could force them to reconsider. 

The challenge for the Blue Jays is more than just money. If they can’t surround their star with the necessary talent, it’s hard to see him committing to a long-term deal without assurances of sustained success.

If the Jays want to keep pace with the top-tier teams, they’ll likely need to land another marquee player like Bregman. But with their present financial limits, the math just doesn’t add up easily. For the Rogers family, it could be a difficult decision: go all in on Guerrero and the future, or stay conservative and risk falling behind the competition in the AL East.

What do you think would the Jays decide?