Shohei Ohtani’s contract has gone through several price changes. Before his elbow surgery, he was said to be worth at least $500 to $600 million. Then, once he got injured, experts worried that his value might deteriorate. Gradually, it became clear that the worries may have been a tad overstated. The numbers eventually again reached $600 million but now an insider has come up with a highly surprising figure.

While the sweepstakes have taken the world by storm, not much actual information is known. Shotime’s secrecy has led to a market that’s filled with speculations. Still, there is no denying that Ohtani will sign the largest contract in baseball history. But, this time, the anticipated contract has fallen short of $500 million mark.

Insider gives a surprisingly low number for Shohei Ohtani 

Even though recent estimates have gone above $600 million, there was a consensus amongst most insiders that his contract will at least touch $500 million. The two-time MVP is one of, if not, the best players in the world, and coupled with his star power, this number seemed more than fair. Yet, Jim Bowden of The Athletic recently gave a shocking prediction about Ohtani’s contract situation.

Bowden wrote – “Ten years, $477 million with incentives and escalators that take the deal to more than half a billion dollars” The reason for this prediction was simple, Ohtani’s genuine quality is in him being a two-way player. In 2023 he slashed .304/.412/.654 and hit 44 home runs. At the same time, he pitched to an ERA of 3.12. This is the kind of performance that the baseball world has rarely, if ever, seen before. But then he got injured.

Shotime’s elbow surgery has been effectively ruled him out completely from pitching in 2024. At the same time, it has also raised doubts over his long-term pitching future. Even though his agent has repeatedly said that Ohtani will pitch in 2025, many have doubts about him ever reaching the heights of 2021 to 2023. That’s the reason why Bowden has anticipated a figure below half a billion dollars for Ohtani.

Read more – Where Is Shohei Ohtani Right Now? Is He in Toronto?

Though Bowden states that Ohtani will go above $500 million after some incentives, his guaranteed amount will stay below the highly anticipated amount. What are the incentives that he’s talking about?

The possible structure of Shotime’s contract

Bowden’s idea was simple. Teams would like to protect themselves from the possible risk of Ohtani not being able to pitch for a long time. He said, “Ohtani’s injury status will lead to teams proposing complicated contracts with incentives, salary escalators and opt-outs to protect themselves should he not return to full health as a pitcher.”

Perhaps that’s why his contract could have opt-out options and can be a little bit back loaded. But even then there’s no denying that Shohei Ohtani will sign the biggest contract in the history of baseball. With this, it’ll be interesting to see how this pans out.

WATCH THIS STORY – Shohei Ohtani’s Two-Way Dream – Before Injury He Always Wanted Both