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Is Juan Soto worth a $700 million gamble, or is this baseball's next big mistake?

The World Series might have ended in disappointment for Juan Soto, but 2024 will not have a similar end. The 26-year-old is now rushing towards his free agency – something that has consistently seen its estimates grow. More importantly, what makes Soto’s free agency different from others is that it’s left both the small market and big market teams excited. Simply put, Soto’s age makes him a player for the future. At the same time, his quality makes him the star of today – that’s a rare combination to have. Naturally, the interest is high but just how much? 

Well, according to New York Post’s Jon Heyman, “within two hours” of the World Series, 8 rival teams had contacted Juan Soto – that number grew to 11 by Thursday morning. So in one night, Juan Soto had woken up executives of at least 11 teams and that number might just grow more. But what’s even more absurd is the new estimate that has arisen after such a huge spike in interest on the Dominican slugger. 

According to Heyman, “$700M is the number floating around” for Soto. Though Soto’s free agency will begin after a few days, teams do not want to wait till then to show their interest. To his credit, Soto too has kept the fire burning with his cryptic replies to all free agency-related questions. The star has repeatedly said that he’d talk to everyone and his doors aren’t closed for any team. In a way, that has given hope to some surprising teams.

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As Heyman noted, while the usual New York Yankees and New York Mets are there, a bunch of other teams too have shared their interest. This includes the Toronto Blue Jays, Boston Red Sox, and the San Francisco Giants. “Word shockingly is two small-market teams” have always checked in on Soto said Heyman. But that raises the important, just how many years are the teams willing to invest in Juan Soto? 

The Yankees’ maximum might just be less than Juan Soto’s minimum 

According to Jon Heyman, the New York Yankees are prepared to give a 13-year deal to Soto. Ideally, that is a huge duration but the Dominican slugger is just 26 years old. According to his various comments, it has been deduced that Juan Soto expects to play at least till 40. As a result, expectations are that Soto wants at least a 14-year deal. So, even a $700 million deal at 14 years would make him the first $50m+ player in AAV. Soto has already rejected a backloaded deal with the Washington Nationals – expecting a deferral from him might not be ideal.

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Then come the fears of Juan Soto not wanting to play second fiddle. According to most reports, Juan Soto doesn’t care whether he plays in Aaron Judge’s Yankees or Shohei Ohtani’s Dodgers. While the teams are selling him a project where he’s the franchise guy, Soto would rather go to a team that offers him the most money. Even geography holds no value for Soto who was reportedly all in on signing with the San Diego Padres until the trade. Just how big that deal would’ve been is still unknown. But certainly, it would’ve rivaled the biggest in baseball.

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Is Juan Soto worth a $700 million gamble, or is this baseball's next big mistake?

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So, it’s clear the New York Yankees have a huge competition when it comes to their Juan Soto pursuit. Steve Cohen-led Mets is perhaps the richest team in baseball now. And in 2025 their payroll is set to lose a lot of deadweights. With such freedom, one can imagine just how Cohen’s bid for Juan Soto can go. Can the Bronx Bombers match it? What do you think? Let us know in the comments.

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