In 2024, the Boston Red Sox had high hopes for Lucas Giolito. However, fate had other plans. Added to a one-year, $19 million deal, Giolito was assumed to bolster the rotation. Instead, the talent never threw a single pitch. A torn UCL forced him into elbow surgery. This wiped out his entire year before it began. The Red Sox, already struggling on the ground, were left without one of their vital additions.

Now, there is finally a reason for optimism. After a period of rehab, Lucas Giolito says he will be ready for Opening Day. The team is counting on his return, however, after a 4.88 ERA in 2023, questions remain. Can Giolito return with full power and be Red Sox’s reliable arm?

Giolito’s return could patch weaknesses in Boston Red Sox’s rotation

Boston’s 2024 season looked like a never-ending medical report. Triston Casas left the house for 3.5 months. Then, Trevor Story’s shoulder gave up just after 8 games and the team collapsed in the second half. In addition, Houck, Crawford and Pivetta ran out of gas, while the bullpen seemed to specialize in making leads disappear.

To make the situation worse, the Red Sox’s offense went down. Right-handed bats were nearly nonexistent. Without effective right-handed power, the team struggled to manage left-handed pitching. With Tyler O’Neill hitting free agency, the team needed balance. Enter Lucas Giolito. The team added him for this exact reason, but instead of stabilizing the roster, he invested the entire season recovering from elbow surgery.

Now,  when he is back, Boston needs him more than ever. He is also ready for the Opening day. “Being able to get through that step, it feels like the end of the rehab arc,” he said recently.

Giolito is not just any right-handed pitcher at his peak, Giolito was a robot dealing Ks. From 2019 to 2021, the star put up a 3.47 ERA with more than 170 strikeouts in a year, proving he could manage the workload. 2023 was a shaky year for him but he still fanned 204 batters in 184.1 innings.

If Giolito gets his momentum, he could provide much-needed power for Red sox‘s rotation which barely ruled last year. However, to be honest—he has not provided a competitive pitch in 2024. Rehab optimism is good, however, how much can the Boston Red Sox realistically get from him coming off elbow surgery? Is Giolito the answer and just another question mark?

Tempered expectations amidst hopes

While Lucas Giolito’s return is exciting, history says that pitchers do not always play effectively after an elbow surgery. For instance, Chris Paddack had a stellar rookie season in 2019. He scored a 3.33 ERA and 9-7 record over 26 starts in that year. However, after undergoing Tommy John surgery twice, Paddack has yet to re achieve his peak form. “I have not been capable to prove myself besides my rookie year,” he admitted.

Another vital instance is Nathan Eovaldi. He took years to regain consistency after his second surgery. Research highlights that repeat Tommy John surgeries come with enhanced risks, a longer recovery period and a much lower success rate. A 2022 study identified that only 55 percent of pitchers after a second surgery return to MLB at their previous level. This situation highlights the intricacy of Giolito’s road ahead.

If the veteran pitcher struggles, the 2025 Boston Red Sox are far better ready to manage setbacks compared to last year’s team. The team now features Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler and Brayan Bello. They are establishing a much powerful base. In addition, the Rox’s bullpen has added Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman. They are providing Boston reliable late-game options. Offensively, the team has Rafael Devers and Triston Casas. However, the additions of Alex Bregman and O’Neill provide much-needed power. Compared to 2024, this roster is established for sustained success. While a fully effective Giolito would be a vital force, Boston now has enough firepower to compete.

Lucas Giolito’s return is not just a feel-good story—it is a pivotal moment for the Red Sox’s 2025 season. If Giolito can return to form, he provides stability to a team in transition. The issue now is, will his comeback be enough to help Boston contend in a stacked AL East?