The new baseball season is almost here, and fans are speculating about who will win the American League championship. The Boston Red Sox made some big changes during the offseason, signing new players and creating excitement among their fans. But, hoping for a championship and actually winning one are two different things. As experts share their insights, a mixed picture emerges for Boston–some see promise. In contrast, others point out potential issues, including a notable warning from an Insider regarding their playoff chances.

Looking at how teams performed in Florida’s Grapefruit League this spring gives some clues. The Toronto Blue Jays finished strong with a record of 18-10, while the Houston Astros and Red Sox also had winning records at 16-12 and 15-12, respectively. Notably, Boston’s Trayce Thompson led everyone with six spring homers. The New York Yankees ended up even at 14-14, while the Baltimore Orioles struggled a bit with a record of 12-15, despite throwing a combined no-hitter once. This shows that the AL East, where Boston plays, will likely be a tough fight again this year, setting the stage for intense competition.

Amidst the predictions, insider Ben Verlander offered a particularly interesting take on his ‘Flippin’ Bats’ podcast. While acknowledging Boston’s improvements, he gave a surprising prediction that included a serious warning. He actually picked the Red Sox to finish first in their division, stating, “So that’s the Orioles and the Red Sox. I do have [the Red Sox] as the one seed…” This suggests he sees Boston as the best team in the AL East heading into the regular season, surpassing rivals like the Yankees and Orioles.

Now here’s the catch—a stark warning for Red Sox fans hoping for a deep playoff run. Despite picking them as the top seed, he doesn’t foresee them reaching the World Series. “…but I think the Rangers are going to come into the playoffs hot and take down the Red Sox,” Verlander stated definitively. Interestingly, he ultimately chose another team entirely to win the league title: “So Astros are my American League champion.” His reasoning includes doubts about the Yankees, who he believes are weaker without Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole, and concerns about the Orioles, citing their pitching issues and struggles to hit in October. But it still raises the question—why did Verlander issue a warning about the Red Sox’s playoff odds?

Red Sox: spring struggles vs. regular season hopes

Perhaps, he is being cautious because the Red Sox faced some struggles during spring training. Several of their top starting pitchers, including Brayan Bello, Kutter Crawford, and Lucas Giolito, were injured. These injuries forced the team to include players like Sean Newcomb in the starting rotation. Additionally, they revamped the infield by inserting rookie Kristian Campbell at second base, which led to Vaughn Grissom being optioned to Triple-A. Outfielder Masataka Yoshida will “most likely” open the season on the injured list, adding to the team’s challenges.

But it wasn’t all bad for the Red Sox. They made several positive moves before the season started. One was signing star third baseman Alex Bregman, known for his hitting and leadership. The team is also implementing a new hitting philosophy called ‘Core Four.’ Moreover, their outfield defense also looked strong with players like Jarren Duran, Ceddanne Rafaela, and Wilyer Abreu. These changes definitely make the team seem more competitive.

Interestingly, it’s important to remember that the Red Sox have a history of winning even after a poor spring training. Back in 2004, they only won 11 spring games but went on to capture the World Series. Then, in 2013, they had an average spring record of 17-17 but still ended up winning the championship. These past seasons show that how the Red Sox perform in March doesn’t always predict their success. They know how to bounce back.

Verlander’s concerns about the Red Sox are valid. But it can’t be said for sure that they might lose in the playoffs to the Rangers. Since they added notable players like Bregman, and have promising young talent coming up. They have also surprised everyone in the past after slow starts, making for an exciting season ahead. Will the Red Sox defy Verlander’s warning and make a deep playoff run, or will the challenges hold them back?