Will Juan Soto Bag an Even Bigger Deal Than Aaron Judge’s $360M in 2024?

One of the most sought-after players of his generation, Juan Soto has been consistent in making his way up through the ranks of MLB. The Washington Nationals drafted him into the major leagues back in 2018. From then until now, Soto has seen a considerable change in his contract and salary structure. Given the state of his performances displayed throughout his career, we can deem the change more than reasonable. And they’re not over yet.

Soto has been the center of headlines surrounding his prospective contract values and the Padres’ inability to hold him to their dugout for any longer than this season. Amidst all the rumors surrounding his impending free agency opening for the coming season, one question remains. Will Soto be able to score a deal greater than that of Aaron Judge for the season?

Juan Soto and his unrealized free agency dream

Playing with the Padres since 2022, Juan Soto is currently under a one-year contract extension with the team. He opted for it to avoid salary arbitration for 2023 In lieu of the trade that brought him here, the Nationals got a few talented minor-league prospects. Namely, Jarlin Susana, James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, and Robert Hassell.

A highly touted prospect, Juan Soto started playing for the Nationals with a signing bonus of $1.5 million. Five years down the road, the Nationals found themselves offering him a $440 million contract for 15 years. Just a few months before that, they offered him an extension with them, with a $350 million, 13-year offer. How well was Soto faring on the team during that period that made them reevaluate their deal?

Nationals’ era Soto obtained an impressive 119 homers with 358 RBIs in a total of 569 hits with a .427 OBP. His slugging rate was an exceptional .538. His seasonal slugging ranged from anywhere between .390 and .548—with a career-high slugging percentage of.695 that he racked up back in 2020. He also had the highest OPS of 1.185 in the same year. In those five seasons, Soto struck out just 38 times. No wonder the Nationals wanted him to rethink his free agency decision when his contract was nearing its end.

The Nationals’ unprecedented Soto move

After rejecting the Nats’ contract extension offer, Soto denied their $440 million deal again in 2022. The slugger clearly stated that he would much rather weigh up his free agency choices for the coming seasons. But he did not get the chance to fulfill that dream, sadly. The Nationals traded him to the Padres for the aforementioned list of prospects. The Padres gave him an out by offering him a contract higher in both value and flexibility of the term offered.

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Juan Soto earned a salary of $17.1 million in his last year with the Nationals. The Padres took him on with a $23 million contract—a considerable increase, much thanks to his consistent track record. They also offered him that contract for just a year, which, once again, opened the door to Soto’s longstanding dream of exploring free agency.

He did renew his term for another year, i.e., for the 2023–2024 season, for the same amount. Now Soto is all set to hit the free agency market in 2024. Despite the team’s wishes, it does not seem like he will be staying any longer with them. And contrary to the barrage of ongoing speculations, his decision makes perfect sense.

Soto’s $500 million saga and its relation to the Padres contract expiration

There are two primary reasons why Soto’s decision to migrate teams makes sense. One: Soto’s salary for the next year is projected to have an increment of approximately $10 million, which the Padres cannot afford right now. They have major cost cuts under process for the next season. There is also the burdensome loan of $50 million that they got the MLB board to sanction this season after requesting a sum of $100 million to sort out their cash flow and cover payrolls.

Two: The Padres cannot afford Soto’s projected salary increment of approximately $10 million for the next year. He might just trump the Yankees’ sky-high deal with their captain.

At just 25 years of age, Soto is “primed” to receive a deal worth around $500 million, according to ESPN columnist Jeff Passan. This will heavily overshadow Judge’s $360 million deal for nine years that he received at the age of 24. With Soto’s record of 35 homers, 109 RBIs with a .519 SLG, and an elite score of .930 OPS across 162 games for this season, the prediction does not really seem very far out of reach, does it?

Juan Soto is all set to be chased by MLB titans like the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Giants, the Mariners, and the Phillies (as predicted by Baseball America) upon his free agency initiation. The club that can bid the highest in honor, fame, and money for the Dominican slugger will determine his use of skills.

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