Will Josh Hader Break Mets Star Edwin Diaz’s Historic $102 Million Contract?

It’s that time of the year when the pen is put to paper in MLB. But there are fewer than-expected deals that make or break records. Free agent closer Josh Hader is one such scenario. His dominance and confidence led him to demand north of Edwin Diaz’s record deal. But how likely is that to happen? 

Hader’s story is more about impact rather than just contract value. It is no secret that this former San Diego Padres and Milwaukee Brewers pitcher had a spectacular All-Star season that caught the attention of multiple teams. But this reliever is not here to set records not only on the field but also off the field. Thanks to the high bar that Diaz set with his five-year-$102 million contract. 

Looking Into a 2024 Full of Possibilities With a Tinge of Doubt

The New York Mets’ 29-year-old pitcher electrified the world of baseball in 2022, with an astounding ERA of 1.31 and 17.1 strikeouts per nine innings. And witnessing these herculean stats get recorded, the Mets made him the generous and record-setting offer last winter. It was not just any record. He became the relief pitcher with the largest contract ever. 

Following a similar path, was the 29-year-old Hader. He recorded a 2.50 career ERA and a 42.2 percent strikeout rate all time. Which puts him above Diaz in terms of performance. Today, he is by far the best free agent closer available in the 2024 market. By that logic it should sound right that he gets what he demands for. Also, there aren’t many pitchers in the free agency pool. 

There is an underlying threat in this situation. Ken Rosenthal from The Athletic’s has a point. He stated, “However, his average fastball velocity dropped from 97.4 mph in 2022 to 96.1 in ‘23 while his walk rate increased from 9.6 percent to a career-high 13 percent. Some clubs find that combination alarming.” There is some truth to that statement. In MLB whenever the velocity of a relief pitcher drops it is a bad indication. So, what’s up ahead for him?

How Competitive Will the Race for Josh Hader Get?

There are 3 teams that seem to be forerunners in this chase. The New York Yankees, Texas Rangers and the Philadelphia Phillies. The Yanks recently signed Marcus Stroman a few days ago. This has paved the way for Hader to enter the Bronx. As a trailing effect, Clay Holmes can be moved to a sete-up role where he thrives. While the Big Apple seems like a great destination for him, the other teams are not too far behind. 

The Rangers, who are fresh off winning the 2023 World Series could use a top arm. They are chasing another free agent, Jordan Montgomery. But with the possibility of them losing out on him, the Rangers could change direction and approach Hader who would be one great acquisition to come from this free agency. 

Next up, there are the Phillies. While the club is blessed with a super strong bullpen, they too could use some help on the closing front. And who is a better option than the 6x All-Star? That said, it must be kept in mind that even with these top teams chasing him, the chances of him bagging the deal he needs might be thin. The Athletic mentions that he is likely to get a contract of value close to a 4-year-$20 million per year. 

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Comparing the Two Stellar Closers – Josh Hader Vs Edwin Diaz

Looking beyond the stats, the two hurlers have had a comparable path so far. Both of them have shown immense confidence, except one erroneous season. Speaking of Díaz, it was in 2019, his first year with the Mets that he had a disappointing 5.59 ERA across 58 homerun-prone innings. On the other hand for Hader, it was 2022. It was when he was traded to San Diego from Milwaukee owing to a disastrous first half. He wound up that season with a questionable 5.22 ERA.

Let’s not forget that Díaz’s entrance into free agency was quite different than that of Hader. He knew he’d earn big. Steve Cohen, the owner of the NYM known for his financial capabilities, could showcase the “overwhelming landslide of dollar bills on Díaz’s head before the Puerto Rican flamethrower even reached free agency”. But that’s not the same in case of Hader.

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Well, pitchers and catchers will soon be reporting to their spring trainings. By that time, Hader would have found himself a new city to call home. However, will his contract eclipse that of Diaz’s remains shrouded in doubt. Only time can tell who would become the highest paid closing hurler of MLB.