In MLB free agency, negotiation can resemble a dance in which every step counts. When the Baltimore Orioles acquired ace Corbin Burnes for the 2024 season, it felt like a touch of destiny. Burnes pitched like a Cy Young winner, leading the staff in stellar fashion. But at the end of the season, another question surfaced: would the Orioles be able to retain their star? When Burnes signed with another agency, everyone assumed it was money. Now, insider details reveal a more stunning reason as to why the deal fell apart.

On the surface, the Orioles appeared to make a strong financial push. Reports say they had made Burnes a $180 million, four-year offer. It was a whopping $45 million average annual value (AAV) deal. It would have made Burnes the highest-paid pitcher annually in the history of baseball, other than Shohei Ohtani’s unique deal. By contrast, the contract he signed with the Arizona Diamondbacks is for six years and $210 million, or $35 million a year. So why didn’t the higher AAV win?

But recent comments from Burnes himself have made clear the biggest sticking point: the length of the contract. Burnes admitted that the Orioles’ four-year model was confusing. “That was kind of one of the things that we were scratching our head at, where they kind of got the years from”. He continued, adding, “I just don’t think we necessarily matched up in the years it was going to take to kind of get to a dollar amount to stay there”. The message is clear– four years simply wasn’t enough.

Another compelling factor that tilted the scales towards Arizona was: home. Burnes, who is from California and lives off-season in Scottsdale, Arizona, stressed the strong pull of wanting to be near his expanding family. His twin daughters were born just last June. “Just getting to be here, sleep in my own bed year-round, is pretty special,” Burnes said. Basically he admitted that the D-backs had a huge advantage in location if they made a “fair offer.”

Burnes’ departure: a void in the Orioles’ rotation

That’s a painful result for Orioles fans who got to see Burnes in 2024. He was brilliant that one year in Baltimore, with a 2.92 ERA in almost 200 innings and 181 strikeouts. He was the American League’s starting pitcher in the All-Star Game and finished fifth in the Cy Young voting. Burnes even threw a gem for the Orioles in their short playoff series. The loss created a huge hole at the front of the rotation that Baltimore immediately needed to address.

So why did the Orioles stick with four years for a pitcher of Burnes’s talent? The answer may lie in their future plans and impressive young core. Baltimore’s front office, led by Mike Elias, surely considered the huge contract extensions needed soon for homegrown stars such as Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson. Committing Burnes—potentially more than $200 million for six or seven years—might have hampered their ability to retain that championship core over the long run.

This high-AAV four-year offer appears to be a maneuver to take advantage of the present window while not mortgaging the future. It was a high-stakes gamble, but it allowed them to deploy resources for top-notch performance in the present while keeping flexibility on the payroll in the future. Baltimore pivoted quickly after losing Burnes, signing veterans Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano, and later Kyle Gibson, to provide depth behind internal candidates Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer, and Trevor Rogers. But it’s going to be pretty hard to replicate Burnes’ ace-level production in 2025.

Now for the Arizona Diamondbacks, Burnes’s arrival would pose a different challenge: having too many good starting pitchers. They already had Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jordan Montgomery, Brandon Pfaadt, and Ryne Nelson in their rotation. If they add Burnes, someone moves. The most likely trade candidate is Montgomery, who had a rough 2024 season and is due $22.5 million. So, dealing him would give the D-backs the ability to upgrade in other areas of the roster. It would also potentially build a dominant starting rotation anchored by their new ace.

Now the question is: How will this high-stakes decision ultimately play out for both franchises in the seasons to come?