In a high-profile league like MLB, teams always want aces, but securing one during mid-recovery is risky and complicates the trade market landscape. The allure of Cy Young’s potential often clashes violently with the harsh reality of rehab statistics.

Perhaps no player currently illustrates this high-wire act better than Sandy Alcantara. He was once a pitching giant, a unanimous Cy Young winner. “The Sandman” hypnotized hitters with his electricity and amazing stamina for the Miami Marlins. Following Tommy John surgery, his return paints a vastly different picture. His $56 million contract is still very team-friendly, making him a top trade target. Yet, recent struggles raise some serious questions about his current value. What’s exactly going on with him?

That puzzle became a whole lot tougher after Alcantara’s recent performance against the powerful Los Angeles Dodgers on April 29. Shohei Ohtani led off the game by hitting the first pitch for a home run. That set the tone for a brutal night at Dodger Stadium for the Marlins’ ace. Alcantara lasted only 2.2 innings, surrendering seven earned runs on seven hits and five walks. The Dodgers cruised to a 15-2 victory, ballooning Alcantara’s ERA to a ridiculous 8.31. Performances like this dramatically take down trade interest.

This very issue was pointed out by baseball analyst Buster Olney on his podcast, Baseball Tonight, after that game. He bluntly stated that teams are simply “not going to invest in him” heavily right now. Olney emphasized, “Teams are going to want to see something before they invest heavily… There needs to be some positive results.” He suggested the Marlins might hear offers like, “yeah, we’ll take the contract, but we’re not going to give you the A+ package.” This reality creates a major roadblock for Miami in maximizing its return.

Olney’s evaluation is specifically about Alcantara’s numbers for the difficult 2025 season. And they are far from promising through his first six turns. The Sandman holds a 2-3 record, but the 8.31 ERA and 1.65 WHIP are scary stats. His command is shaky, evidenced by a career-low strikeout rate (around 15.8%) and nearly doubled walk rate (14.2%). These figures show why potential trade partners remain hesitant. They want proof that the Cy Young stuff isn’t a distant memory before paying top dollar.

Marlin Alcantara’s comeback trail: Post-Tommy John uncertainty

We have looked at a few more things. His challenging return follows major elbow surgery in October 2023. Alcantara missed all of 2024 while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. What complicates matters further is the fact that Alcantara’s performance already dipped slightly in 2023 before the injury, posting a 4.14 ERA. This pre-injury trend led to some modest uncertainty in projecting his full return to the elite level of 2022 for clubs doing the evaluation.

Despite the current red flags, several pitching-needy clubs are undoubtedly monitoring Alcantara. Olney was surely thinking about the Chicago Cubs, New York Yankees, and Los Angeles Dodgers. The Cubs lost their ace, Justin Steele, to a serious elbow injury earlier this season. The Yankees dealt with early injuries to Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil. Even the deep Dodgers saw Tyler Glasnow hit the injured list, a reminder that depth matters. These scenarios create potential fits if Alcantara shows progress.

Back in Miami, the Marlins badly need Alcantara to regain form for trade leverage. The team has struggled badly in 2025, owning one of baseball’s worst records and team ERAs. In addition to Alcantara, other starters such as Cal Quantrill (8.10 ERA) and Edward Cabrera (7.23 ERA) have also been hit hard. Youngster Max Meyer (3.18 ERA) provides a bright spot, but the overall rotation is weak. Trading Alcantara fits their rebuild, but his current form limits the potential prospect haul significantly.

Ultimately, Sandy Alcantara remains one of baseball’s most interesting figures to watch surrounding the trade deadline. His Cy Young resume and bargain contract clash sharply with his post-surgery struggles and command issues. Miami faces a tough call: trade him now for a potentially lesser return or wait, hoping he rediscovers his magic? Potential suitors will need to balance that giant reward with a similarly giant risk. Can The Sandman recapture enough brilliance to command the king’s ransom Miami seeks?