Can’t believe it? True that the big payroll teams top the headlines. But there’s one under-the-radar with the best odds to take home the World Series. So, if it’s not the star-studded Dodgers or big-spending Mets, any guesses who it might be? Well, as it’s not an easy one, we have a hint for you: They haven’t even made it to the playoffs since 2020.

But things are different this year! Did you get there?

Well, as per Baseball Reference, the Chicago Cubs presently hold the best probability to win the 2025 World Series. How did they land on this summation, though?

You see, MLB playoff odds are drawn from 1000 simulations from the remainder of the season and playoffs. A team’s quality is calculated based on its record over the last 100 regular seasons. It is to be noted that it also includes a regression to the mean factor.

Now, the Cubs sit at 58-42 across their past 100 games. It puts them sixth best in the league. Not to mention, they hold the 10th-best overall record.

But so far this season, they have faced the toughest schedule. On the brighter side, though, they are about to play the easiest schedule from now on. They are about to host games back-to-back, including two home series against the Dodgers and the Phillies. From April 28th to the remainder of the season, things are expected to be a bit easier for the Cubs.

Now, it’s hard to believe that the Chicago Cubs’ payroll is ranked outside the top 10. Apparently, at $192.8 million, they are closer to the bottom three teams, including the Athletics, Chicago White Sox, and Miami Marlins. Topping the list, we’ve got the Los Angeles Dodgers (of course), New York Yankees, and New York Mets. Yeah, that was an easy one!

So there is a massive $138.8 million gap between the Dodgers and the Cubs. And the gap between the Miami Marlins and the Cubs? That would be a solid $124.1 million.

Yes, the Cubs didn’t make it among the top 10 payrolls in the league. But for now, everything else points to them being very likely to win the 2025 World Series. Although on the concerning side, the Cubs don’t have their star player in the picture anymore for the rest of the regular season. Did the Cubs do anything about it?

The Chicago Cubs acquired Drew Pomeranz from the Seattle Mariners in their chase  to World Series

We are sure you all have been keeping tabs. Yeah, the Cubs will be going ahead with the rest of the season without Justin Steele. Apparently, he underwent UCL surgery and is still on the injured list. But on the slightly bright side, it wasn’t a Tommy John. So, the Cubs are hopeful they will have him back super soon. But as they aim for a World Series championship, they can’t really afford to take any risks. Can they?

As a result, they have just added veteran arm Drew Pomeranz from the Seattle Mariners. When it comes to Pomeranz, he brings 11 years of MLB experience to the table, standing with a 3.91 ERA over his 289 appearances.

But there’s still one thing that is quite a concern for the Cubs. It’s the fact that the last major league outing Pomeranz had was back in 2021. He recorded a 1.75 ERA over his 20 outings out of the bullpen. Also, he spent the entire 2022 season on the sidelines as he was battling a torn flexor tendon.

There’s more btw!

When he made a comeback in 2023, he again hit the curveball of injury. He didn’t pitch that year as well. And ultimately, he had to spend the past season in the minors. Now, the question is: Will he be able to bring stability to the Cubs? Of course, it’s too soon to tell now!

Unsurprisingly, the Cubs are entirely focused on the World Series race. So, adding Pomeranz to their depth is something they simply had to do. We will know just in time if he’s able to deliver for the Cubs while they chase the October glory.