MLB Spring Training: Examining How March Outcomes Drives October Fate

Imagine if, after a $1 billion of spending, the Los Angeles Dodgers underperform in Spring Training? Fans would certainly lose their minds, but would it mean that the regular season is over? Well! Spring Training certainly has its importance, but one will have to dive deep before getting to any conclusions. Especially as the data is filled with some quite interesting instances where the picture given by March was quite different from the painting of October.

It’s always interesting to see how the newly built teams do initially in Spring Training. However, putting too much weight into it might not be an ideal act. After all, players are still building chemistry and returning to their form during March. Yet, there are a few instances where the Spring Training has successfully predicted the future.

Spring Training form an indication of regular season form?

It’s always interesting to see how teams fare during Spring Training. However, what’s more interesting is to see how this lines up with their overall season. So taking MLB.com’s data into account, here’s how the teams did on March 2023 and how their season shaped up to be. Beware, there’s a bunch of surprises here.

St. Louis Cardinals led the Grapefruit League with a winning percentage of .708 (17-7). In second position was the Atlanta Braves with a .643 (18-10). The Baltimore Orioles and the Philadelphia Phillies were 4th and 8th respectively. So how was their regular season? The Cards finished last in NL Central with 71 wins, the Braves had a league-high 104 wins, the Orioles had 101 and the Phillies played the NLCS. 

Similarly, the LA Angels led the Cactus League with an 18-11 record. The Texas Rangers were 10th and actually had a losing record of 13-15. Imagine the surprise that in the regular season, the Angels were limited to just 73 wins, and the Rangers ended up winning the World Series! So it certainly isn’t wise to completely put one’s faith on their team’s Spring Training form.

Read more: Can Baseball’s Top Prospect Jackson Holliday Crack Orioles’ Opening Day Roster?

However, don’t underestimate Spring Training! It can be a good indicator of player performance, even if it’s not perfect.

Times when March accurately predicted the regular season form

Sticking to 2023, it was interesting to see how the Spring Training correctly showed the structural issues in the New York Yankees and their neighbors the New York Mets. Both teams had a losing record in Spring Training with the Yankees finishing 12th with a 13-18 record and the Mets right below in 13th with a 10-14. While the Pinstripes improved a little in the regular season, the Mets fully succumbed to the symptoms.

So, in short, putting too much stock on Spring Training might not be the wisest thing to do. After all, its beauty comes from the fact that it is baseball at its full glory – without the pressure of the competition rushing ahead of your team.

Read more: Spring Training: Origin, History, and Everything You Need to Know About Baseball’s Preseason