Last November, the Philadelphia Phillies made a bold move – locking up ace Aaron Nola with a seven-year, $172 million contract. Then, they set their sights on Japanese right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto but failed to secure a deal. The Phillies put together a massive offer of over $300 million, hoping to land the highly sought-after 26-year-old, whose stuff has drawn comparisons to the game’s best. However, the squad was well aware they were long shots – Yamamoto had his heart set on joining one of baseball’s glamour teams, the Los Angeles Dodgers or the New York Yankees.

Probably no amount of money was likely to change that, and this wasn’t the first time the Phillies had been involved in a high-profile pursuit with little hope of landing their target. In 2017, they made a similar effort to get Shohei Ohtani which did not end in their favor either. And now, the team is opting for another star Japanese pitcher – Roki Sasaki. Sasaki is set to hit the MLB free-agent market soon – the 23-year-old right-hander for the Chiba Lotte Marines is considered one of the top pitching prospects. Last weekend, the Marines announced they would post Sasaki, making him available to all MLB teams, including the Phillies.

Roki Sasaki’s ability to generate interest across the league is undeniable – he is Japan’s most exciting young talent at present. But unlike Yamamoto, Sasaki’s situation is different – he is under 25 and has not yet reached six years of service in a foreign major league, so, he will be subject to MLB’s international amateur signing bonus pool rules. This caps the amount of money he can earn, making him a potentially more affordable option for teams like the Phillies. 

While Sasaki’s eventual contract may not come close to the $300 million offers seen with Yamamoto, the Phillies have learned from their previous high-profile pursuits and are well-positioned to make a serious run at signing him. Given the structure of his deal, landing Roki Sasaki would be a major boost to the team’s rotation, potentially giving them a frontline starter to complement their existing pitching staff. But with the limitations on Sasaki’s contract size, the Phillies might find themselves in a more competitive bidding war than in the case of Yamamoto.

Do the Phillies really have a chance with Roki Sasaki?  

The Phillies’ possibilities of securing Roki Sasaki could change depending on the timing of his posting and the resources available in their 2024 international signing pool. If Sasaki posts before December 2, he can only sign during the 2024 international amateur signing period. The Phillies have just $42,200 left in their pool and are at a severe disadvantage – that amount is far from enough to land a star of Sasaki’s caliber.  

However, if he posts between December 2-15, he can sign during either the 2024 or 2025 signing periods. This opens up a potential avenue for the Phillies – they have a much more substantial $6.26 million to spend in the 2025 pool, giving the team a better shot at signing the young ace. While the Phillies have never signed a player directly from Japan’s NPB, they have been building up their presence in Asia over the past few years, which could prove to be an advantage as they look to establish a relationship with Sasaki.  

Despite the financial problems, the Phillies could offer something valuable, including an opportunity to join a team on the rise with a dynamic roster. As Mark Feinsand of MLB.com pointed out, the teams most likely to pursue Sasaki are typically West Coast clubs and those with a history of signing Japanese players—like the Dodgers, Padres, and Yankees. That doesn’t necessarily mean every Japanese player is destined for L.A. or New York – Sasaki might be motivated by more than just the financial side of things, and the Phillies could appeal to him.