If you’re a Dodgers fan, you might want to sit down for this one. Baseball Reference just dropped its updated World Series projections, and the numbers feel more like a prank than a prediction. According to the site’s algorithm, the Los Angeles Dodgers, yes, those Dodgers, with the billion-dollar roster, are sitting at just a 3.1% chance to win it all. Meanwhile, the Chicago Cubs, a team many didn’t even pencil in as a division favorite, topped the list at 17.6%.

Let that sink in. The Cubs, who haven’t won a playoff series in seven years, are suddenly the darlings of the data, while the Dodgers, who practically print postseason appearances, are barely clinging to a top-12 spot. Fans across the league didn’t just do a double-take; they flipped the table. “I had to refresh the page,” one fan tweeted.

So what gives? Are the Cubs suddenly unstoppable? Well, they did just embarrass the Dodgers with a 16-0 rout at Chavez Ravine, their biggest shutout loss since 1965. That kind of public demolition definitely turns heads. Michael Busch and Carson Kelly each hit two homers, while rookie pitcher Ben Brown made L.A.’s offense look like it forgot what a bat is. It was ugly. But one bad night shouldn’t erase the rest of the season.

Here’s where things get spicy. Just days before the Cubs lit up Chavez Ravine, the Dodgers traded veteran reliever Ryan Brasier to Chicago. The same Brasier who held a 0.70 ERA in 2023. Coincidence? Maybe. But the timing is eerie, and it adds another layer to the sting of that 16-run beatdown.

Dodgers fans aren’t mad — they’re confused. And maybe that’s worse. This isn’t just a case of being underrated. This feels like the algorithm clicked “simulate chaos” and forgot to switch back. Sure, it’s early. Sure, stats evolve. But if Baseball Reference is trying to start some drama in April, mission accomplished. The Dodgers might not lead the projections, but they’ve got the league’s full attention now.

Dodgers Nation isn’t buying it

Dodgers Twitter? In shambles. Cubs fans? Doing victory laps. And everyone else? Just trying to figure out what dimension these odds came from.

This points out that the Dodgers’ current win-loss record doesn’t hold much weight in the big picture. Despite sitting just four games above .500, the team still has glaring issues, particularly with starting pitching depth, a shaky bullpen, and the lack of a true closer. The fan argues that unless the front office addresses these weaknesses, the Dodgers’ record is misleading and shouldn’t boost confidence about their postseason chances.

This user basically threw up a red flag, saying, the start might look solid on paper, but memories of last season’s collapse at the plate still sting. That’s the kind of frustration that comes from déjà vu. The implication? A strong April doesn’t guarantee anything if the offense vanishes when the team really needs it to show up. There’s no doubt it’s experience talking.

When even a Cubs fan, someone with every reason to enjoy the spotlight, is calling the numbers ridiculous, you know something’s off. It’s one thing for Dodgers fans to be outraged, but when the other side is just as baffled, it says a lot. This isn’t just a biased reaction; it’s baseball logic kicking in. Love or hate the Dodgers, it’s hard to look at that roster and say they only have a 3% shot. That’s not just low—it’s laughable.

The user is calling out the Cubs’ bullpen as a major flaw. The person suggests that, despite the strengths that the team may have, they can’t be taken seriously as contenders until they fix their bullpen issues. Whether it’s inconsistent performances or a lack of a dependable closer. The comment highlights the Cubs’ inability to reliably close out games, which is a huge hurdle in the postseason. Until they address these bullpen concerns, any talk of playoff success seems premature.

Now that’s a bold take! With those kinds of odds, it’s hard not to feel like there’s some serious value on the table. While the Dodgers are always a force to be reckoned with, this kind of long-shot offer might be too tempting for even the most die-hard Cubs hater to pass up. Sure, the odds are stacked against them, but in baseball, anything can happen. With a little luck and some key performances, a 30-1 shot could turn into a much more interesting bet than it sounds on paper.

Baseball Reference may have some of the most detailed stats in the game, but handing the Dodgers such a low chance feels like they’re throwing out the rulebook entirely. With a roster full of superstars, including Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, and a now-healthy Walker Buehler, it’s tough to imagine a scenario where their postseason odds are that slim. Maybe the numbers are telling one story, but it’s hard to ignore the talent on the field — and the Dodgers’ track record of proving stats wrong.

Ultimately, these odds seem way off given the Dodgers’ roster and track record. Projections are one thing, but they can’t account for the unpredictability of the game. Until the Dodgers prove otherwise, it’s hard to see how anyone can count them out.