MLB Contracts: Insider Predicts Record-Breaking Juan Soto Contract Surpassing Shohei Ohtani’s $700M

Major League Baseball is bracing itself for a potential record-shattering contract in the off-season. The New York Yankees’ young superstar Juan Soto is poised to eclipse the Los Angeles Dodgers’ Shohei Ohtani’s $700 million deal, according to MLB insider Ken Rosenthal.

While Shotime’s contract grabbed headlines for its astronomical sum, financial experts and insiders have dissected the intricacies of the deal, revealing a present value considerably lower than the headline figure. This begs the question: how will Soto’s contract compare, and will it truly rewrite the MLB’s financial landscape?

Juan Soto eyes a megadeal surpassing Ohtani’s historic contract

Rosenthal’s prediction hinges on Juan Soto’s meteoric rise and exceptional value. At just 25 years old, Soto has already amassed an impressive resume, boasting a .284 batting average, 160 home runs, and 483 RBIs in his six-year career. His 28.4 wins above replacement (WAR) clinched during the first six seasons translates to a staggering $227 million in value based on a conservative $8 million per WAR estimate.

Notably, this figure doesn’t even account for his potential earnings had the 2020 season not been shortened due to the pandemic. This track record, coupled with Soto’s young age and immense talent, has convinced Rosenthal that he’ll command a contract that will potentially reach the mythical half-a-billion-dollar mark without deferrals.

If this materializes, it would dwarf the present value of Ohtani’s deal, estimated at $460.8 million due to significant salary deferrals. That shiny $700 million contract is like a flashy sports car—impressive, but the true price tag hides under the deferred payments.

Why eclipsing the $700 million deal won’t be a shot for the moon for Soto?

Ohtani’s contract, while seemingly astronomical, has been subject to much scrutiny regarding its actual financial impact. The Dodgers cleverly structured the deal to minimize their immediate salary cap burden by deferring $680 million of it until later years. This financial sleight of hand, while technically legal, has led some to question the legitimacy of the $700 million figure as a true measure of Ohtani’s market value.

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Jon Becker of FanGraphs calculated the present value of Ohtani’s contract to be significantly lower, standing at $460.8 million, highlighting the time value of money and the impact of inflation on future payments. Additionally, Ohtani’s $46.08 million annual threshold for CBT purposes pales compared to Juan Soto’s future predictions for contract value, further solidifying the notion that Soto’s deal could be a genuine financial behemoth.

Read More: Amidst $31 Million History, Juan Soto Sets Another Arbitration Record

Soto has already rejected a $440 million offer from the Washington Nationals. It won’t be surprising to see him getting one worth $520 million for 15 years, as Bleacher Reports have pointed out. In conclusion, American baseball is on the cusp of witnessing another historic contract negotiation as Juan Soto prepares to enter free agency next year.

While Ken Rosenthal’s prediction of a record-breaking deal surpassing Shohei Ohtani’s contract remains to be seen, it is a given that Soto’s immense talent and young age position him for a windfall that could redefine the financial landscape of MLB.