The New York Mets entered spring training with one glaring question: who would take the ball on Opening Day? With the rotation in flux and Frankie Montas sidelined for six to eight weeks with a lat strain, the Mets needed someone to step up. While all eyes were on Kodai Senga, who is still building up after an injury-riddled 2024, another name quietly emerged as a surprise contender.

Clay Holmes. The 32-year-old right-hander, best known as a dominant reliever, arrived in Port St. Lucie with something to prove. After signing a three-year, $38 million contract this winter, Holmes wasn’t just looking to secure a bullpen role—he wanted to start. Early bullpen sessions and live batting practice caught the attention of Mets staff, particularly his new changeup, which fooled even Pete Alonso. By the time the team began Grapefruit League play, Holmes had made his case.

The Mets beat writer Tim Healey confirmed the news on X, “Clay Holmes will start Opening Day for the Mets, Carlos Mendoza said.” It’s a bold decision, considering Holmes has never thrown more than 70 innings in a season, but the Mets believe in his ability to transition into a starter. The move is partly out of necessity—Montas’ injury leaves a gap—but also a reflection of the confidence the team has in Holmes’ evolving repertoire.

So far, the early returns have been promising. Holmes has worked extensively on a new changeup to complement his signature sinker and slider. Mets manager Carlos Mendoza raved about the pitch after a recent live session. “He used his slider against Pete today, and it was pretty nasty,” Mendoza said. “Then I asked, and it turns out it was a changeup. The profile was really, really good.” That extra weapon could be key in allowing Holmes to handle a starter’s workload, especially as he faces hitters multiple times through the order.

Of course, the biggest question remains: can Holmes hold up as a full-time starter? Holmes has never thrown more than 70 innings in a season, and transitioning from short relief to a full starter’s workload is no small task. The Mets are being cautious, keeping his workload flexible this spring. But they also aren’t setting strict limitations once the season starts.

The goal is clear—stretch him out and see what he can do. If it works, the Mets may have found an unconventional but effective solution to their rotation woes. If not, they’ll need to adjust on the fly. Either way, come Opening Day, Holmes will take the mound as the Mets’ unexpected ace, looking to prove he belongs.

What this means for the Mets’ rotation going forward

Holmes stepping into the Mets’ rotation is both an opportunity and a gamble. Frankie Montas is out of action and Kodai Senga still recovering from a 2024 season due to injuries. The Mets were in need of someone reliable for their pitching rotation. If Holmes adjusts smoothly and effectively utilizes his top-notch sinker slider combo that causes batters trouble with contact shots, he could emerge as a starter unexpectedly. His new changeup showcased promise during training sessions and might play as a crucial element in keeping hitters off balance during a game. Achieving success in this position could provide the Mets with an option and potentially help them carefully monitor Senga’s workload over the course of the season.

However, if Holmes struggles to handle the workload or faces command issues in longer outings, the Mets may be forced to adjust quickly. Tyler Megill and José Butto remain the available options however they’re not guaranteed to step in if Holmes struggles. There is a possibility that Montas’ impending comeback may result in Holmes returning to his performance in the bullpen in the future. In the situation possible his initial experiment comes to an end quickly leading the Mets to look for outside help before the middle of the season.

In a worst-case scenario, his experiment as a starter is short-lived, leaving the Mets searching for external reinforcements before midseason. Either way, his performance will be one of the most closely watched storylines in the early months of 2025.