The standoff between Pete Alonso and the New York Mets has evolved into a high-stakes game of negotiation, with the Mets steadfast in their approach and Alonso left confronting the consequences of a miscalculation. Reports indicate that Alonso, who rejected a seven-year, $158 million extension during the 2023 season, now faces the uncomfortable prospect of accepting far less than he once envisioned.

Alonso, 30, reportedly bet on himself by declining the Mets’ substantial offer, banking on the assumption that his production and market demand would land him an even larger payday. Instead, his value has been tempered by a clear decline in performance. His OPS has dipped three consecutive seasons, falling from elite levels to respectable but less compelling numbers for a first baseman. Coupled with his subpar defensive metrics and concerns about how his skills will age, Pete Alonso finds himself on shakier ground than anticipated.

The Mets’ gamble on Alonso that didn’t pay off

According to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo, “Returning to Queens on a much smaller deal would require Pete Alonso to swallow a heaping portion of pride. But if the alternative is signing elsewhere just to save face, that doesn’t seem very appealing either. And where exactly is elsewhere at this point?” Further adding, the Mets, fully aware of these dynamics, are playing their hand with resolve. Sources from SNY, the New York Post, and The Athletic suggest the team remains unwilling to extend Alonso a long-term deal as he enters his 30s.

While Alonso reportedly hoped for a nine-figure contract spanning six or seven years, the Mets’ latest posture suggests a more modest offer—reportedly three years and $70 million—reflecting their hesitations about committing to a player with visible signs of decline.

Mets officials appear prepared for a post-Alonso era. If Alonso continues to balk at their offer, the team has internal options like Mark Vientos or Brett Baty to step in at first base. Furthermore, letting Alonso walk would free up financial resources for other roster upgrades, a consideration that aligns with the Mets’ stated desire for long-term flexibility under President of Baseball Operations David Stearns.

For Pete Alonso, the alternatives are less appealing. Signing with another team for similar or slightly better terms might preserve his pride but at the cost of familiarity and a fan base that once adored him. Returning to the Mets on a shorter, more affordable deal would mean swallowing pride and facing scrutiny but could offer him a chance to rebuild value in an environment he knows well.

The risk of decline and aging contracts for Pete Alonso

The Mets’ cautious approach to Pete Alonso’s future reflects a broader strategy aimed at steering clear of risks associated with signing older players to extended contracts. Pete Alonso’s declining OPS over the past few years has raised doubts. Coupled with defensive challenges, his power-dependent profile might not hold up over time. The prospect of paying premium dollars for a player whose production could diminish significantly into his mid-30s is a risk the Mets seem unwilling to take, especially as they aim to build a sustainable contender under David Stearns’ leadership.

Recent history is littered with examples of teams saddled by aging stars on bloated contracts, and the Mets appear determined to avoid joining that list. By prioritizing flexibility over sentimentality, they’re sending a clear message: past performance alone won’t dictate future investment. While Pete Alonso’s hitting ability is still a point for the team, considering the likelihood of a drop in performance as he gets older makes it more appealing for the organization to opt for a shorter contract.

Ultimately this structured method highlights the organization’s readiness to take tough measures even if it involves saying goodbye to a fan’s favorite.