The MLB world is buzzing with anticipation over the future of Roki Sasaki – the Japanese pitching sensation. At just 22, the 6’2 right-hander has become a household name in the baseball circles. His popularity in Japan over the last four seasons is off the roof and he is regarded as one of the best, if not the best, pitchers in NPB. But there is a big question in everyone’s mind — will Sasaki make the jump to MLB this season? 

Roki Sasaki wants nothing more than to join Major League Baseball, which baseball star wouldn’t? Plus, he is young and has the potential to be big. However, it’s not going to be an easy road for him, his request to come to MLB has already been disregarded once, and this time too, it might not be any different. ESPN insider Jeff Passan has shed some light on the situation, but as with most high-profile moves, the answer is anything but straightforward.

Will Roki Sasaki’s MLB dreams be denied again?

Jeff Passan made one thing clear- according to the talks in the baseball circle, the relationship between Roki Sasaki and his team Chiba Lotte Marines is not the best currently. It all started last year, when he asked the team to make him available to MLB teams through the posting system. But the team blatantly denied his request, and it left an unpleasant taste in Sasaki’s mind. He had no choice but to return to the team, but he was overall displeased. As per Passan, Sasaki is yet again set to ask the team during this year’s off-season. But will things change this time?

From the Marines’ point of view, there is little to no incentive to post a player of Sasaki’s caliber early. International players who are under the age of 25 are considered rookies, and even the signing bonus is less than $10 million. This wouldn’t be the case if Roki Sasaki waited it out till he was 25. Moreover, as per the rules, if he moves before 25, he would have to probably do it at the Minor League. Hence, it is financially not just smarter for him, but for the team too, as they stand much to gain from his move to the major.

As per ESPN, Passan mentioned, “No one knows whether Sasaki will be posted. Lotte controls the entire process and can keep Sasaki through the 2026 season if it so desires. The decision should come around mid-November, following the conclusion of the Nippon Professional Baseball season. If Sasaki is posted, the mania will not resemble last year with Yamamoto, when seven large-market teams climbed over one another for his services.” He further added, “With the difference in international bonus money available to teams negligible, the differentiator in Sasaki’s case would not be money. All 30 teams will scramble to find out what it is if the most intriguing player this winter finds his way to MLB.”

Seems like, even this time, playing for MLB can become a distant dream for the Japanese right-hander. And even if he did manage to convince his team, Roki Sasaki might be offered a $11 million range—which is nowhere close to what a pitcher of his caliber should get. 

Why Sasaki’s MLB jump isn’t as simple as it was for Ohtani

One could ask—well, Shohei Ohtani left early and made his move to the MLB in 2017-18, so why can’t Sasaki? While it is true that Ohtani left early through the posting window, this is half the story. Ohtani had a special clause in his contract with the Japanese team, the Nippon-Ham Fighters. According to this clause, he could enter the posting system whenever he wanted. Reports from Jorge Castillo and Jack Harris in the Los Angeles Times stated, “Sasaki is thought to also have that clause in his deal” with the Marines. 

It isn’t quite the case; Jeff Passan made it clear that it can be Sasaki’s team who overlooks the entire process. Passan said, “Lotte controls the entire process and can keep Sasaki through the 2026 season if it so desires.” Moreover, the posting system has changed plenty since Ohtani’s time. In his time, teams could demand up a $20 million to allow the players to make a move. That is how Ohtani’s team made good money with his move to the Angels. But now, this isn’t the case and the posting fee is tied up to a signing bonus, which this financial gap isn’t good news for the team.

This means that the Marines could get way less than what is nominal if Ohtani were to be posted now to MLB. Roki Sasaki isn’t on a contractual level to even leave early, and hence, it is hugely unlikely that things will happen according to his whims, yet again. However, his talent is still soaring high and although he hasn’t had the best year, Roki still has a 2.45 ERA, 91 strikeouts, 25 walks, and two home runs in 77 innings.

Until the Marines decide to let him go, Roki Sasaki’s MLB dreams are on hold. What’s your take on this? Share in the comments below.