The Houston Astros are facing a decision regarding their third baseman Alex Bregman, as he looks to score a $200 million contract. Bregman has been a staple in the Astros’ lineup since 2016, but his contract expired last month. It remains a question if the 30-year-old will return to Houston, given his downward trend and high asking price.

For these factors, anticipation about his possible replacements is growing. According to reports, the team is eying one of the top free agents on the open market this offseason, as a backup plan, in case negotiations with their homegrown star do not end up positively. Sources within the organization revealed that they are considering Milwaukee Brewers’ shortstop Willy Adames for this. Adames, recognized for his fielding skills and reliable hitting abilities at the bat, has become an appealing choice for the Houston Astros. His previous playoff participation could help fill in any gaps left by Bregman if he leaves. However, this revelation has sparked a debate.

Are the Astros prepared to invest heavily in a player like Adames? Chandler Rome of The Athletics highlighted, “In the case of Adames if the Astros are going to spend that kind of money, why not invest it in Bregman, a face of their franchise?” The argument likely hinges on a few key factors.

First, Bregman’s reported $200 million demand is based on a long-term deal that would carry him into his mid-30s. Historically, teams have grown more cautious about offering large contracts to players entering their 30s, fearing a decline in performance during the back end of such deals. So, the Astros may see Adames, who is two years younger than Bregman, as a player delivering similar results at a potentially lower cost and with less long-term risk.

MLB Trade Rumors projects Bregman to land a seven-year, $182 million contract, compared to their six-year, $160 million projection for Adames. The Athletic has Bregman at seven years, $189 million while agreeing with MLBTR on their Adames estimate. The second factor is an advantage that Adames comes with.

The positional versatility of Adames could be a factor. Adames has played exclusively at shortstop but is athletic enough to transition to third base if needed. This could allow the Houston Astros to reconfigure their infield depending on other roster needs. “There’s a number of teams that love him at shortstop – and why wouldn’t you – but also some that might consider him in a different position. We could see the Dodgers, the Giants, the Yankees, the Astros – if they don’t re-sign Bregman. I love that idea, by the way. You put Adames, potentially, at third, Peña at short, Altuve at second, I would love that infield,” MLB Network insider Jon Morosi said.

But, Alex Bregman, while a superb defender at third base, doesn’t offer that same adaptability. Adames has been marginally more efficient on offense than Bregman over the past four seasons, racking up a 16.2 offensive WAR since 2021. Bregman has a 15.9 offensive WAR in that same span.

To top it off, Adames is coming off an explosive season with the Milwaukee Brewers, who acquired him in a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2021. He finished this year batting .251 with 32 home runs, 112 RBI, 21 stolen bases, a .794 OPS, and a 3.1 WAR.

For his career, Adames is a .248 hitter with a .766 OPS, averaging 28 home runs, 87 RBI, nine stolen bases, and a 4.0 WAR per 162 games. While he posted -16 defensive runs saved in 2024, he averaged seven defensive runs saved per 162 games between 2019 and 2023.

But letting Bregman go has its risks. He isn’t just a stat sheet; he’s the emotional heartbeat of the team and a fan favorite. Parting ways with him in favor of a less familiar player like Adames could alienate a loyal fan base and disrupt clubhouse chemistry. Bregman has been instrumental in the Astros’ rise to dominance, and many would argue that this kind of leadership and institutional knowledge is irreplaceable.

Houston’s history of letting stars walk

The Houston Astros have become known for making tough choices regarding keeping their players around. They often lean towards maintaining financial flexibility rather than sentimental attachments to the player’s history with the team. Lately, they’ve allowed star players like George Springer and Carlos Correa to leave the agency without matching the paying deals they received elsewhere.

Although these decisions initially faced criticism from fans, Houston’s success in grooming talents or acquiring replacements like Jeremy Peña to fill in for Correa has been instrumental in keeping them competitive year after year. This calculated approach has become a hallmark of the Astros’ front office under Jim Crane’s ownership. However, the departures of Springer and Correa highlighted the emotional toll these choices take on fans and the clubhouse.

While the Houston Astros’ success has softened the blow, it raises the question of whether losing Alex Bregman, one of the team’s most recognizable faces, would create a different kind of disruption. As they face this pivotal decision, the Astros must weigh their track record of success against the unique leadership and legacy Bregman brings to the team—whether they commit to him or pivot to alternatives like Willy Adames, the choice will leave a lasting impact on the team’s future and its connection to an invested fan base.