Not long ago, the Yankees looked like a team that had finally solved the puzzle. After another season of October disappointment, Brian Cashman went all in. He pulled off a blockbuster trade for Max Fried, added lefty slugger Cody Bellinger, and found a veteran bat in Paul Goldschmidt. Yankees fans had reason to believe that, for the first time in years, they weren’t just hoping for a title—they were expecting one. But if there’s one thing baseball loves, it’s a cruel plot twist.

The turning point came with Gerrit Cole’s elbow injury. Initially expected to sideline him for a few weeks, the reigning Cy Young winner will now miss the entire 2025 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery on March 11. This leaves a gaping hole at the top of the Yankees’ rotation. Adding to the woes, pitchers Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt are also facing extended absences due to injuries. Suddenly, a rotation that once appeared formidable now seems alarmingly thin. ESPN’s Jeff Passan, who was once optimistic about the Yankees’ prospects, has drastically altered his stance.

“I had the Yankees, before Gerrit Cole got hurt, winning the American League East. I do not have them making the playoffs right now,” Passan said bluntly. “And I don’t feel very good about that because, generally speaking, when I doubt the Yankees, they come back and prove me to be the fool that I often am.” But this time, the doubts feel more warranted.

The Yankees’ rotation without Cole looks like a shaky foundation rather than a championship core. Max Fried is a legitimate ace, but he’s adjusting to a new league and ballparks that won’t be as forgiving as Atlanta’s. Carlos Rodon is coming from an injury-plagued and inconsistent 2024 season. The rest? Passan didn’t hold back. “The bottom 60% of their rotation is made up of a guy who wasn’t going to be part of it when spring training started, a prospect who was probably going to start in Triple-A, and Carlos Carrasco.” That’s not a winning formula in a division loaded with offensive firepower.

But let’s not count them out fully. Even with the rotation concerns, the Yankees’ lineup has the potential to compensate—if everything clicks. Judge remains a perennial MVP candidate, and Bellinger, Goldschmidt, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. bring the upside. But there are too many unknowns. Passan also questioned the lineup’s reliability: “So many things can go right, but so many things can go wrong.” That’s not exactly an endorsement of a team expected to contend.

The Yankees enter 2025 with more questions than answers. And unless those questions resolve quickly, they might not even be playing in October. But here’s the confusing part despite these glaring concerns, Vegas hasn’t budged on the Yankees’ odds. Despite losing Cole for months and rolling into the season with a questionable rotation, the Yankees are still one of the top betting favorites in the AL. Clearly, Vegas knows something—or at least, they believe in something—that’s keeping New York in the championship conversation. But what is it?

So why are the Yankees still AL favorites?

It’s a fair question—if the Yankees are as flawed as they seem, why haven’t oddsmakers adjusted their World Series and playoff odds? The answer likely lies more in the state of the American League than in faith in New York’s roster. The AL is full of teams with their own flaws.

The Houston Astros, saw Justin Verlander turn 41 and are relying on an aging core, including Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman. The Baltimore Orioles boast an exciting young roster, led by Adley Rutschman and Gunnar Henderson, but their rotation is still a question mark, especially after losing Cy Young finalist Kyle Bradish to a UCL sprain. The Texas Rangers, despite winning the World Series, have been hit hard by injuries—Jacob deGrom won’t be back until at least July, and Max Scherzer is out until midseason. Meanwhile, teams like the Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners have talent but haven’t shown they can consistently win in October.

This competitive landscape plays a huge role in the Yankees’ betting odds. They don’t need to be perfect—they just need to be the best of a flawed field. Then there’s the Yankees’ brand power and midseason flexibility. The Yankees have the financial muscle and trade assets to make big moves if needed, whether that’s reinforcing the rotation or adding another bat. And, of course, there’s always the Judge factor. As long as Aaron Judge is in the lineup, oddsmakers know New York has a game-changer who can carry them through rough stretches.

The Yankees are walking a tightrope in 2025. The talent is there, but so is the uncertainty. If they can navigate the early injuries, make key additions, and ride the bat of Aaron Judge, they might still be standing in October. But if things go sideways? The Bronx could be in for a long, frustrating summer.