The notion of undervaluing the first baseman is getting bigger with time, and more players at 1B are finding it difficult to fetch a multiyear contract. Well, that’s not the case with Vladimir Guerrero Jr., despite him being a first baseman. While the majority of players at 1B are considered unathletic and have low defensive skills, Guerrero is built differently. His hitting prowess, hitting average, and bat-to-ball connection are beyond others and above par, even though he is about to reach his prime. 

Is Guerrero more athletic compared to other 1B players? No, but it is his skills that can get him running for the long term. Guerrero is about to hit the free agency post-2025 season and is expected to create quite a stir among the contending teams—quite a challenge for the Blue Jays to retain him. However, the question now is: How much is Guerrero expected to fetch; will he get over $400 million this time, or is he just getting overhyped?

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is a unique proposition 

Guerrero made his debut in 2019 for the Toronto Blue Jays, and since then, he has been playing for the same team. In these five years, he was selected in All-Star four times, 2x Silver Slugger, and the leading home run leader in 2021. That’s huge for a player who started his career just five years ago. Apart from his on-field activities, Guerrero’s popularity among the fans drives the merchandise sales for the Jays, which poses a good business case for the contending teams.

Now, contract deals are not only offered based on on-field performance but the player’s branding is also included. “He has a lot of skills referred to as ‘old man skills’. I think the guy will age better than you think he will,” said MLB insider Kiley McDaniel in an interview on Sportsnet 590 The Fan. As per him, his ability of Vladimir Guerrero to hit the maximum, his gameplay sense, and his bat-to-ball ability will age like fine wine. 

Guerrero Jr. will become more skilled with time, which can add more value to his team. McDaniel sounded confident about Guerrero fetching a deal above $400 million, and that’s possible considering how Rafael Devers fetched a bugger deal just based on his skills. The diverse value additions by Guerrero is what make him a unique proposition for the teams, and that’s where he is different from other players at 1B.

Turning the tide of undervaluation  

The trend of undervaluing the 1B players is hitting pause against Guerrero. A player who has ended 2024 with 30 HRs and 103 RBIs surely has some fierce hitting power. The recent offer from the Blue Jays proves the value of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., with reportedly $450 million being offered for a minimum of twelve years and with an opt-out option for the fifth or sixth year. McDaniel’s prediction of Guerrero fetching north of $400 billion thus proved true, and it is unlikely that Guerrero will agree for twelve years or will ask more in that case. 

Even with the Jays trying hard to stop Guerrero from hitting free agency, a few other teams are arming up for the same. Yes, a player at 1B who expected to get undervalued is making the teams go desperate for him. The Mets are the frontrunner in landing Guerrero Jr., as they have both financial ability and Mark Vientos as a potential trading option to get him. No matter where Vladimir Guerrero will ultimately land, he proved a point that offering better value and skills is immune to any trend of undervaluation. 

The ‘old man skills’, as they said, are coming in handy for Guerrero, and it is highly likely that post-2025 season, he can even land a record-breaking deal. His contract with the Jays or any other team will be something to watch out for. What do you think about Guerrero bucking the trend of falling 1B value? Share your views with us below.