The 2025 international signing class is in quite a frenzy, all thanks to Roki Sasaki. The 23-year-old pitching phenom, after being posted early in MLB, has the attention of every other team. And why not? A sensation like him, who is often compared to Yoshinobu Yamamoto, yet does not cost an arm and a leg, is a lottery for teams. But here is the deal: no one knows where he will land, or where he has his sights on. Now Sasaki is so sought after that teams are okay to blow their entire international bonus pool to sign him!

Money isn’t the priority for Sasaki clearly, because he didn’t wait two more years and probably get a nine-figure deal. However, since this will be his only MLB payday for now, one can bet he is keeping an eye on those numbers. What makes everything so tricky is the fact that Sasaki is not deciding until after January 15. It’s complete chaos in the market, and one team just cashed in big time—the Pittsburg Pirates! Given that the LA Dodgers were so fixated on Sasaki, the Pirates just stole one of their prospects, Darell Morel.

Tunnel vision hurts the Dodgers

There is no guarantee where Sasaki would sign, but LA seems to have this almost tunnel vision in his pursuit. Thanks to that, the Pirates came in to swoop their prospect, Darell Morel. A towering 6’5 shortstop with immense left-handed power potential. He was set to sign with the Dodgers. But in a twist, even they might not have seen coming, he is headed to Pittsburgh for $1.8 million. But it’s quite a gamble for Pirates!

The Pittsburgh Pirates had just over $6.9 million in their bonus pool. But now this deal leaves them with just $5.1 million to work with. However, it’s a calculated risk, considering that Morel was expected to headline the Dodgers 2025 international class. Plus, there was news from scouts buzzing about his size and power. The interesting thing is this isn’t the first time the Pirates landed a player connected to the Dodgers. The last time this happened was when they clinched Oneil Cruz, one of their brightest stars now. And they say history repeats itself, so did pirates just strike gold again? They hope to!

Even now, more than seven teams, including the LA Dodgers, according to Baseball America’s Ben Badler, are holding off finalizing deals with other prospects. The worst-case scenario, according to Badler, is that a team “holds off on their signings in the hopes of landing Sasaki, their top commits bolt elsewhere after Jan. 15, only for Sasaki to sign with a different team anyway.” Well, it remains to be seen what will happen. But let’s look at the Dodger’s chance of landing Sasaki.

Roki Sasaki’s chance of landing in the Dodgers

The former Dodgers GM and Emmy-winning baseball analyst Ned Colletti has placed the Dodgers as the clear frontrunners for the Roki Sasaki sweepstakes. Speaking at the NorCal Sports Network podcast, he gave the team a 51% chance of landing the Japanese pitching phenom.

“I’ll be surprised if he’s not in a Dodgers uniform,” Colletti mentioned. He adds, “The way the Dodgers have prospered, how they play, how they prepare, the success they’ve had….they’ve got everything going for them.” And it’s not like he was biased because he led the Dodgers from 2006 to 2014; he gave reasons.

One of the key factors Colletti said Sasaki would thrive in LA is the team pitching staff! And it’s true, the Dodgers have a great rotation, so Sasaki really wouldn’t face the pressure of being the one workforce. Instead, he could ease into the demanding role like how Yoshinobu Yamamoto did in LA. “You’re not going to be rushed… You’re not going to be put into a rotation where we expect you to pitch every fifth day,” mentioned Colletti.

Off the field too, Sasaki’s would have the chance for great endorsement opportunities with the team. For Colletti, “The opportunities to make more money off the field are only going to be in L.A.” Moreover, technically, the Dodgers already use a six-man rotation, and it is very similar to Japan’s system. So for Sasaki, a move to LA seems tailor-made.

Do you think he will rock the Dodger blue? Or is LA making a mistake to wait it out? Let us know.