The Toronto Blue Jays finally made a $28 million deal with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Ensuring his presence for the 2025 season and sidestepping arbitration disputes, this figure cements Guerrero Jr.’s position; however, it also raises a query: what lies ahead? As Guerrero Jr. approaches free agency post the 2025 season, time is now ticking for the team to secure him in the years ahead. And even though he showcased his prowess both on and off the field, talks of negotiations have seemingly hit a roadblock.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will turn 26 in March and embodies all the qualities the Blue Jays envisioned during his development journey with them. In the 2024 season, Guerrero Jr. hit a .323 at the plate along with 30 home runs, driving in 103 runs. Nonetheless, reports indicate a $100 million gap between Guerrero’s asking price—rumored to be $450 million—and Toronto’s offer. So, if this gulf remains unbridged, Guerrero will inevitably become the crown jewel of the 2026 free-agent market.

Toronto’s window of opportunity is shrinking with Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

MLB Network Radio posted a video on X in which former MLB general manager Jim Duquette talked about Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s contract situation during an appearance. Stressing the importance of a long-term deal, Duquette explained, “That one’s gonna be long-term or bust,” adding, “This is not gonna be a ‘Oh, let’s just do a two-year deal and buyout one-year free agent.’ It’s gonna be a 12 to 15-year deal if it gets done.”

If the Blue Jays are hesitant to agree to a long-term contract, it reflects broader worries. Following a disappointing 2024 in the highly competitive AL East division, the potential departure of Guerrero Jr. from the agency poses a risk, as finding a suitable replacement would be quite challenging. Meanwhile, rivals like the Boston Red Sox, flush with financial flexibility, have already been linked to Vladimir, with Guerrero Jr.’s inner circle hinting he ‘would love to be with the Red Sox’ if Toronto fails to retain him, raising the stakes higher for the Blue Jays’ front office.

For the Toronto team, the message is clear now: It’s long-term or bust. Securing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. with a contract lasting 12 to 15 years would not just mean he stays with the Blue Jays during his playing years but also excite their fan base even more strongly together. On the other hand, not locking him in for a stable deal may upset fans. Also, this can potentially allow their competitors to capitalize; Guerrero isn’t a player—he’s a once-in-a-generation talent. So, if Toronto doesn’t make a move soon, they might end up harming themselves in the run.

The weight of fan expectations around the Blue Jays’ legacy

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. represents the heart and soul of the team; hence, losing such a player would not only impact the Jays’ performance but also deeply upset the devoted fanbase that witnessed his journey to becoming one of MLB’s top hitters. After his standout offense in the 2024 season, fans are expecting the organization to go above and beyond to keep him on board for good. His leaving might suggest a lack of team commitment to being competitive in an AL East division where rivals like the Yankees and Red Sox consistently strive to acquire top-tier talent.

Not securing Guerrero Jr. for the haul could jeopardize the Blue Jays’ reputation as a force in baseball. The team has strived to foster a tradition centered around homegrown talent such as Guerrero and Bo Bichette. Losing a player of Guerrero’s caliber might undo the strides made over the years. The team that last won a World Series in 1993 faces a decision about Guerreros’ future—letting him go without a fight could signify more than a lineup adjustment.

Fans who have longed for big-name signings like Juan Soto might view Guerreros’ departure as a setback for the teams’ ambition and foresight. The upcoming months will determine if the Blue Jays can keep their generational talent or risk losing him to free agency.