Shohei Ohtani’s two-way dominance has always come with one big risk, injuries. In 2018, it was Tommy John surgery. Late in 2023, another UCL tear shut him down as a pitcher again. Now, after undergoing labrum surgery in the offseason, Ohtani is back in rehab mode. However, this period is distinctive. The Dodgers are banking on a $700 million investment and whether he returns as an ace could define their future.

For now, Ohtani is sticking to hitting. He says his rehab is going effectively, however, there is no set date for when he will pitch again. That is the largest unknown for him as well as the Dodgers. Ohtani himself highlighted his labrum surgery as “complicated“, which is not exactly the most reassuring word for a pitcher’s recovery.

While he has not gone into specifics, labrum injuries are no joke. In the past, such injuries derailed multiple careers. The good news? He says he is “on schedule” as well as that rehab has been “pretty smooth“. However, there is one vital piece missing, which is bullpen sessions. Until Ohtani begins throwing again, nobody knows how effectively his shoulder will hold up.

As Alden González reported from Dodgers Fan Fest, Shohei Ohtani admitted there is “no set date” for when he will begin to pitch, adding that he will “know more once he gets in bullpens“. In other words, his return remains a mystery.

That makes his bat more vital. Ohtani crushed 44 homers with a 1.066 OPS last season, winning his second MVP award. The LA Dodgers need that same production, specifically with their new-look lineup featuring Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman. He will be the full-time DH, which needs to keep his offensive numbers powerful. However, as good as Shohei Ohtani is at the plate, the vital question remains, when will he be back on the mound?

Dodgers pitching approach and injury concerns

With Shohei Ohtani’s pitching return uncertain, the Dodgers have reshaped their rotation. The team landed Yoshinobu Yamamoto with a 12-year, $325 million deal. In addition, the Dodgers signed Tyler Glasnow to a five-year extension. There is Walker Buehler who is returning from his second Tommy John surgery, and is assumed to be a vital piece. The team, having invested more than $1 billion this offseason, just refuses put all force of World Series on Ohtani’s arm alone. However, postseason baseball is distinctive.

The past highlights that labrum injuries could be unpredictable. For instance, Michael Pineda underwent labrum surgery in 2012 and missed nearly 2 full seasons. In addition, Johan Santana never regained his Cy Young form after a similar process. On the contrary Julio Urías had a successful return after 15 months of rehab. It can be seen that the range of outcomes is wide, making Ohtani’s long-period future unclear. If he adopts the Urías path, he could be back as a dominant 2-way force by mid-2025. However, if his recovery is slower, the Dodgers could have to rethink how the team utilize him moving forward.

For now, Ohtani’s two-way return is a waiting game. His offensive talent is undeniable, but history shows that labrum injuries don’t have a predictable recovery path. The Dodgers are all in, banking on his return to the mound. Whether that gamble pays off is a story still waiting to unfold.