Roki Sasaki is a pitching prodigy. MLB teams are definitely fighting for him, but his path to the big leagues is a bit different from most international stars. Because of his age, Sasaki will be considered an international amateur free agent. His signing team will be limited to spending from the international bonus pool rather than entering a bidding war with deep-pocketed clubs.

So, while money won’t be the main factor, other factors will play a major role in his decision. Sasaki will prioritize stability, lifestyle, and a team’s track record with player development as he makes his choice. Another key factor? Endorsement potential. Since the Japanese pitcher won’t be eligible for salary arbitration for three years and free agency for six, he’ll need to capitalize on endorsement deals with Japanese companies to boost his income in the meantime. This makes markets like Boston especially appealing.

Boston becomes a favorable landing spot for Roki Sasaki

The Red Sox have a promising pitching development program under Andrew Bailey. A leadership team with manager Alex Cora, chief baseball officer Craig Breslow, and minority owner Theo Epstein working behind the scenes. According to The Athletic, Boston could offer Sasaki the stability and support system he’s looking for. Plus, the large market of Boston would allow him to maximize endorsement opportunities. If he lives up to his potential, he could become the face of the Red Sox’s pitching staff for years to come. But apparently, the Red Sox aren’t the favorites to sign him. The Dodgers can steal him.  

According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Los Angeles Dodgers are the clear favorites to sign him. On a Baseball Tonight podcast episode from November 14, Olney shared insights from speaking with all 30 MLB general managers about Sasaki’s situation. Sasaki, unlike last year’s big-ticket free agent Yoshinobu Yamamoto, isn’t expected to get a massive deal. Olney noted that Sasaki is likely to sign a relatively minimal contract, similar to what Shohei Ohtani did early in his career. However, despite the potential financial structure of his deal, Olney added that there is a strong agreement among executives: 30 out of 30 teams believe Sasaki will end up with the Dodgers.

Why the Red Sox have to fear the Dodgers?

The Los Angeles Dodgers ultimately emerged as the victors last offseason. The squad secured both Shohei Ohtani and Yoshinobu Yamamoto with massive contracts. Despite the Dodgers’ overwhelming offer, at least six other clubs were reportedly prepared to go toe-to-toe with a similar or even higher bid. This time around, however, the situation is vastly different for Roki Sasaki. 

The cost of signing him although is far more manageable. Over the weekend, all 30 MLB teams refined their best recruiting pitches. Each hoped to convince Sasaki that their organization was the best fit. The Dodgers stand out as the heavy favorites, especially with their huge $2.5 million international bonus pool. That gives them a significant advantage.  

There have been rumors circulating for nearly a year that a deal was already in place between Sasaki and the Dodgers. Both the team and Sasaki’s agent, Joel Wolfe, have constantly denied this. Despite the speculation, no decision has been made. And you know what? If teams truly believed the Dodgers had already secured Sasaki, they wouldn’t have invested time and resources in sending their front offices to Japan to scout him. The competition for his signature is still very much alive.