The Boston Red Sox were dealt a devastating blow with the news that Lucas Giolito, their marquee offseason pitching acquisition, suffered a significant elbow injury this Spring Training. Giolito’s likely season-ending status leaves a gaping hole in a Boston rotation that was already facing uncertainty. This development reignites speculation about the Red Sox’s longstanding interest in free-agent left-hander Jordan Montgomery and the impact he could have in Boston.

The Red Sox rotation went from a question mark to a scramble with Lucas Giolito’s season-ending injury, who is currently “undergoing tests and was expected to miss time,” according to The Athletic. With the current predicament in hand, Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello are likely starters, with Kutter Crawford potentially joining them.

The battle for the remaining two spots falls to Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck, with depth options like Cooper Criswell and Josh Winckowski also in the mix. It’s a patchwork group, unproven yet with potential. On the other hand, Jordan Montgomery’s free agency might loom large as a possible source of stability, but Boston’s budget constraints make that a question mark as well.

Before the Giolito injury, Montgomery was a logical “nice to have” addition for Boston. Now, he looks more like a necessity. Even without a dazzling upside, Montgomery provides considerable consistency and eats innings—critical qualities for a Red Sox team struggling to find stability. However, signing him presents its own challenges.

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The left-hander remains a free agent, suggesting his contract demands of a deal north of $172 million might exceed what teams, including the budget-conscious Red Sox, are willing to pay. “Ownership set a (lower) budget because they don’t believe this team is good enough to compete right now,” said MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith. “They have made it clear they are in rebuild mode, not win-now mode, entering 2024.” Where does this leave the team and their targeted pitcher?

Analyzing the Case for Jordan Montgomery

Montgomery brings reliability and experience, which are sorely needed by a team searching for stability. The ace’s track record of innings-eating consistency (166 strikeouts across 188.2 innings pitched during his Texas Rangers’ World Series-winning season) is essential, particularly considering the uncertainty surrounding younger starters in the mix. However, it’s important to temper expectations.

The Giolito injury undoubtedly raises the stakes in the Jordan Montgomery sweepstakes. Before, Montgomery was a potential upgrade; now, he’s a lifeline to prevent a rotation collapse. But there are caveats. Montgomery, while reliable, is not a transformative ace. Boston was skeptical of his impact even with a healthy Giolito. Adding Montgomery now feels more like replacing lost talent than creating a surplus.

Furthermore, Red Sox ownership has repeatedly articulated a budget-conscious approach, emphasizing a long-term rebuild, with team President Sam Kennedy stating, “The build we’re engaged in and have been engaged in will dictate the spend,” to MassLive. This fiscal restraint was a critical factor in the lackluster offseason pitching moves, a philosophy unlikely to change dramatically due to the Giolito setback.

Despite the crisis atmosphere, Chief Baseball Officer Craig Breslow publicly emphasizes faith in the team’s internal pitching depth. “There are a number of guys that we have in camp that appear ready to take a step forward,” he said.

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The Giolito injury might accelerate the development of young arms, but it’s a risky gamble for a team already facing an uphill battle in the AL East. It is a notable setback for the team and significantly amplifies the need for an experienced starter. Jordan Montgomery might be becoming an even more attractive target with each passing day, but his signing hinges on the Red Sox’s willingness to increase their budget, an outcome that feels uncertain even in the face of Giolito’s absence. In baseball, as in life, timing is everything. In this case, it may not be on the Red Sox’ side.