The Toronto Blue Jays are once again on the sidelines. Despite their ambition to land top-tier players, they’ve spent yet another offseason watching coveted stars sign with rivals. Their latest setback, losing a $52 million player to a hated competitor, adds to a growing list of near misses that includes Shohei Ohtani, Cody Bellinger, and Juan Soto. These failures not only highlight Toronto’s struggles in free agency but also the deeper organizational issues.

Toronto’s challenges during games have made the situation worse; following a 74-88 loss in 2024, the team’s future looks murky at best. Star players Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are nearing the end of their contracts next season, creating concerns about the team’s stability in the run. Adding to this uncertainty is a farm system that lacks promising prospects for the future. For players seeking stability, winning potential, and a clear plan for success, the Blue Jays are failing to present a compelling case.

A pattern of losing stars to rivals

New York Post’s baseball columnist Jon Hayman posted on X, “Blue Jays were also interested in Bellinger. That helped Cubs do the deal they wanted, sending just $5M to Yanks to offset $52.5M owed Bellinger over next two years.” Another significant factor working against the Blue Jays is the deteriorating state of their farm system. The once-promising prospect pipeline has thinned considerably, leaving the team with few high-impact young players to either bolster their roster or use as trade capital.

This lack of organizational depth has made it harder to project a winning future, a critical component when pitching to free agents. For many top players, Toronto doesn’t just lack immediate appeal—it lacks long-term allure. The Blue Jays’ struggles in free agency have also been compounded by external factors. Canada’s higher tax rates, the challenges of crossing international borders, and a colder climate are all deterrents for players accustomed to the warmer, tax-friendly environments of U.S.-based teams.

Most concerning is the recurring pattern of near misses. In recent years, the Blue Jays have seen Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, and Cody Bellinger slip through their fingers after aggressive pursuits. Rather than landing these stars, their efforts frequently drive up the market price, effectively benefiting their competitors instead. The inability to close the deal speaks to a broader issue: a front office that struggles to translate ambition into results.

The main reason for the Blue Jays’ failure: their weak farm system

The Toronto Blue Jays are facing a challenge with their farm system as they strive to establish a team for the long term. In the past, filled with up-and-comers on the cusp of stardom; now a lack of top-tier prospects. Experts consistently rate the Blue Jays’ system as below average in Major League Baseball. There are hardly any players to make a big impact at the professional level anytime soon, making it more difficult to handle the possible departures of players like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, as well as attract free agents who prioritize a solid surrounding team.

Without a promising pipeline, the Blue Jays are also at a disadvantage in the trade market. Other teams are reluctant to deal established talent to Toronto due to the lack of elite prospects available in return. This impedes the team’s capacity to meet requirements, putting pressure on the management to depend extensively on free agency—an area where they have consistently fallen short. Coupled with a farm system and past setbacks, it paints a gloomy outlook for the franchise’s ability to compete in the long run and has sparked doubts about the organization’s strategy.

To ease the concerns of fans and players alike and build a foundation for long-term success, the team must now stabilize its organization. The longer these issues persist unchecked, the more frustration will mount among both supporters and team members.