The Toronto Blue Jays aren’t ready to throw in the towel just yet. Despite a 74-win season in 2024, they have revamped their lineup and are now striving hard to secure a spot in the playoffs. The stakes? Nothing less than the future of their franchise cornerstones, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

Let’s be real—the AL East is a buzzsaw. Every single team in the division is projected to finish at least .500, per FanGraphs, making it the toughest division in baseball. Toronto’s biggest weakness? A rotation that ranks 21st in projected WAR (11.3), leaving them well behind rivals like the Yankees and Orioles. Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt are aging, Alek Manoah remains a question mark, and while Max Scherzer brings leadership, he’s coming off back surgery and turns 41 in July.

2025, a defining season for the Blue Jays

And then there’s the elephant in the room: Guerrero Jr. is in his final year of arbitration. If the Blue Jays flounder early, the front office may have no choice but to shop their franchise slugger at the Trade Deadline rather than risk losing him for nothing in free agency.

The team’s fate largely hinges on Bichette and Gausman regaining their All-Star form. Bichette struggled in 2024, posting a career-low .711 OPS, while Gausman’s inconsistencies left a glaring hole atop the rotation. If both players can rebound, the Blue Jays could defy expectations. As Thomas Harrigan from MLB.com puts it, “If Bichette and Gausman are right, this team can still make a real run. If they’re not, it’s going to be tough to justify keeping Guerrero past July.”

The front office insists they’re committed to competing, but the reality is clear: If this team isn’t in contention by July, Guerrero Jr. could be on the move. The Blue Jays know this, and that’s why 2025 is an all-or-nothing campaign. They aren’t just playing for a postseason spot; they’re playing to keep their identity intact.

So, can they pull it off? Stranger things have happened. But if they stumble out of the gate, expect major changes in Toronto’s baseball landscape.

Playoffs or a fire sale? The trade deadline reality

If the Blue Jays find themselves floundering by midseason, the front office may be forced to make a painful decision: push forward in hopes of a late-season surge or pivot to a fire sale. The most significant name on the chopping block would be Vladimir Guerrero Jr., a pending free agent whose future in Toronto remains uncertain. If the Jays aren’t firmly in playoff contention by July, rival teams will be circling, eager to pry away their franchise slugger. Guerrero’s departure would signal the end of an era, especially if Bo Bichette—who is only a year away from free agency himself—follows suit soon after.

This scenario isn’t far-fetched. Toronto has already shown a willingness to shake things up, as seen in their 2024 midseason trades of Yusei Kikuchi and Jordan Romano when the playoffs slipped out of reach. If history repeats itself, contenders looking for offensive firepower could offer a haul for Guerrero. But if the Blue Jays can stay competitive, they might instead look to add at the deadline, reinforcing their rotation or bullpen to make one final push.

Either way, the next few months will dictate the franchise’s direction for years to come. Do you think Toronto will rise to the challenge, or is this the beginning of the end for its iconic core?