The Toronto Blue Jays thought they were getting a battle-tested ace when they signed Max Scherzer to a one-year, $15.5 million deal. They weren’t expecting perfection—Scherzer is 40, after all—but they needed a dependable presence in the rotation. He was supposed to be the seasoned workhorse, much like Al Leiter was for the 2005 Marlins, guiding a young, talented team toward October. Instead, the early warning signs suggest they may have invested in a ticking time bomb.

Scherzer is already dealing with a familiar issue—one that should terrify Toronto’s front office. His troublesome right thumb, which he says has affected him since 2023, is making it difficult to grip the ball. An MRI didn’t show structural damage, but that doesn’t change the reality: if he can’t throw comfortably, he can’t pitch effectively. And according to former Marlins president David Samson, the Blue Jays are going to realize very quickly that they didn’t sign a frontline starter—they signed a future reliever.

“Every fifth day, he’s injured,” Samson said bluntly on Nothing Personal with David Samson. “Max Scherzer is gonna pitch out of the bullpen this year because the Blue Jays are gonna realize that having a guy every five days who tells you that after 50 pitches he’s cashes that means your team won’t be cashing a lot of victories.”

That’s a brutal assessment, but is he wrong? Scherzer himself admitted, “Man, my thumb hurts. It hurts to grip the ball… the critical thing I’ve learned over the years is that your thumb is absolutely critical to your arm health.” If a pitcher doesn’t trust his grip, it affects everything—velocity, command, movement. And if the discomfort flares up after 50 pitches, how does Toronto expect him to get through a full season?

With Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette potentially entering their final seasons in Toronto, the Blue Jays can’t afford to waste time on uncertainty. Scherzer’s name carries weight, but right now, his thumb is the only thing dictating his value. The wait-and-see period won’t last long—if he can’t handle the workload, a bullpen move might be the only path forward.

Blue Jays bullpen depth: strength or weakness?

The Blue Jays’ bullpen is already under scrutiny, and if Max Scherzer shifts to relief, it raises even more questions. Does this move add a valuable weapon, or does it expose a lack of depth? Scherzer could be effective in shorter bursts, but if his role isn’t clearly defined, it might create more instability than solutions. With Toronto already expecting big contributions from Chad Green, Yimi García, and Génesis Cabrera, the pressure will mount if Scherzer can’t consistently take the mound as a starter. The bullpen was meant to support the rotation—not absorb one of its biggest investments.

The real concern is workload. If Scherzer can’t pitch deep into games and the bullpen has to cover extra innings, will the group hold up over 162 games? García is solid but has struggled with consistency. Green is still working his way back from Tommy John surgery. And Cabrera is best suited for situational matchups. Bowden Francis is a valuable multi-inning option, but can he handle a bigger role if Scherzer isn’t reliable?

In the end, Toronto’s bullpen wasn’t built to carry the rotation, and if Scherzer can’t go deep into games, the Jays might find themselves scrambling for reinforcements sooner than expected.