The Los Angeles Angels have a history of big swings and bigger misses in free agency. From Albert Pujols’ contract that stretched far beyond his prime to Anthony Rendon’s injury-filled nightmare, their high-priced bets have rarely paid off. But despite all that, it looks like the Angels might be gearing up to take another shot at a superstar. Will they finally get it right this time?

This time, the stakes are distinctive. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not just an elite slugger—he is the son of Los Angeles Angels legend and Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero Sr. Such a link could give the team a rare edge in free agency. However, will sentimentality override logic? More necessarily, can they afford another high-risk and high-reward contract?

Why Guerrero Jr. is vital for Los Angeles Angels

The Los Angeles Angels’ struggles with long-term contracts are effectively documented. Pujols’s 10-year, $240 million deal became a budgetary issue as his production decreased. His .758 OPS over his final 9 seasons on the team was a far cry from his St. Louis dominance. Rendon’s 7-year, $245 million agreement has been worse, with the third baseman playing just 200 games over four seasons because of injuries. In addition, Josh Hamilton’s $125 million agreement turned into another bad decision, lasting just 2 years before the Los Angeles Angels dumped his agreement back to Texas. After such a track record, another $400 million investment would normally look reckless.

However, Guerrero Jr. provides a distinctive situation. Unlike others, Guerrero is just 26 and still in his prime. In 2024, he slashed .316/.389/.546, averaging 30 home runs as well as 103 RBIs. In 2021, Guerrero guided the AL with 48 home runs, 111 RBIs, as well as a 1.002 OPS. He won the AL Hank Aaron Award that year. Defensively, he has enhanced at first base, providing a career-best 2 OAA in 2023. In addition, Guerrero’s durability is another vital aspect, something the injury-plagued team desperately needs. If the Los Angeles Angels are serious about reversing their free agent misfortunes, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. provides a rare scope for an agreement that could actually justify its cost.

The risk of another costly bidding war

The Los Angeles Angels are not the sole team eyeing Guerrero Jr., which could be their largest issue. The Mets are the most vital contender. The team can invest, and their record-breaking $765 million deal with Juan Soto has already proven this. Not only that, the Mets are not satisfied with their failure to attract fans to the stadium, and it can force them to sign Guerrero. Such a star can effectively attract fans. In addition, the Yankees, with an opening at first base with Paul Goldschmidt hitting free agency, could be another vital competitor. There are the Cubs, Rangers, and Giants, who are also assumed to enter the mix. Given Guerrero Jr.’s performance—averaging 34 home runs per season over the last 4 years—a bidding war could push his cost well past $450 million. If that happens, the Los Angeles Angels need to decide whether the team can afford another massive agreement after past failures.

Another issue is roster construction. The Los Angeles Angels still have Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5 million agreement on the books. In addition, the team is trying to reestablish itself after losing Shohei Ohtani. The Los Angeles Angels payroll flexibility is restricted, specifically with Rendon’s $245 million agreement still running through 2026. A long period as well as a high-cost commitment to Guerrero could restrict their capability to manage their largest weakness, pitching. The Angels ranked 23rd in MLB in ERA last season as well as carry no clear scope to guide their rotation. If the team goes all-in on Guerrero Jr., the team needs to ensure he is more than just a nostalgic signing.

The Los Angeles Angels are at a crossroads. The team can take a cautious approach and ignore another long-period risk. In addition, the team can embrace the scope to bring Guerrero Jr. home to Anaheim. However, with large competition and a history of costly mistakes, the Los Angeles Angels need to tread carefully. Will they finally make the right move? Will history repeat itself?