The New York Yankees’ redemption saga is incomplete without Aaron Judge’s return to glory. It has been two years since Judge conquered the American League. Ever since then, injuries and setbacks have ruined whatever momentum All Rise was developing. But while his toe still requires some care, projections indicate that Judge could stand heads and toes above others in 2024. 

Is it surprising to expect Judge leading the way in 2024? Of course not. This is a man who broke the AL home run record in 2022. However, a lot has changed since then – both in the league and 2022 AL MVP’s health. While he has maintained that his toe will require “constant maintenance”, here’s why Judge remains the leader in every slugging projection – his sheer power. 

According to BetMGM – Aaron Judge has around +375 odds of being the regular season Home Run leader in 2024. Last season’s Home run leader Matt Olson comes in second with +650 odds. Surprisingly, Shohei Ohtani is down to 5th with +900 odds. Ohtani’s injury plays a role in his reduced odds, so why doesn’t the same issue affect Judge?

One of the reasons is that despite only playing 106 games (only 367 at-bats) last season, Judge was able to hit 37 homers. While it’s a far cry from the 62 he hit in 2022, had it not been for that freak toe injury, one could guess where Judge might have reached. Even The Athletic’s Austin Mock projects Judge to hit the league-high 41.5 homers this season.

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While one awaits the start of the regular season, Spring Training has shown that Judge has one major advantage with him this time around.

Could the presence of Juan Soto enable the power of Aaron Judge?

In a rare occurrence, Aaron Judge is finally getting to play third in the Pinstripes. With Juan Soto at second, suddenly the chances of Judge getting more hittable pitches become more likely. This has raised hopes that the duo’s presence mutually benefits them. Luckily we got a glimpse of it in the recent Spring Training game against the Toronto Blue Jays.

Juan Soto hit a massive home run, while Judge went 2-for-2. All Rise hit a double and then an RBI in that game. The presence of Soto gave Judge more ease at the plate and that could be the case throughout this season. With the hitting lineup getting stronger than ever, Judge has less pressure to perform. More importantly, pitchers have fewer options to pitch around him. 

In short, could Judge get more pitches in the zone? Possibly. Would it benefit him in the long run? Definitely. That makes the Yankees’ redemption arc all the more interesting.

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