How Can Matteo Berrettini Topple Heavy-Favorite Diego Schwartzman for the Final Spot at ATP Finals 2020

After triumphing in Vienna, Andrey Rublev became the seventh player to qualify for this year’s ATP Finals 2020. With the season drawing to a close two players have a realistic chance for that final spot so will fight for it in this week’s Rolex Paris Masters. Matteo Berrettini and Diego Schwartzman will battle out to claim the eight spot.

The ATP will consider the ranking points earned until the 9th of November for the qualification. Before the Paris Masters, Diego Schwartzman sits ahead of Matteo Berrettini in the rankings. Schwartzman has 3285 points whereas Berrettini has 3075 points. And the difference in their points is 210.

But one stipulation to note here is that Berrettini will lose the 200 points he earned from last year’s tour Finals. The ATP has specified that last year’s ATP finals ranking points won’t be considered for the 2020 ATP Tour Finals qualification.

Effectively the above clause increases the points gap between Schwartzman and Berrettini to 410. And puts Berrettini’s qualification chances in a tight spot.

How can Matteo Berrettini jump Diego Schwartzman for ATP Finals qualification?

For Berrettini, he will have to win the Paris Masters title to qualify. Irrespective of Schwartzman’s result, if Berrettini wins the Paris Masters then he will qualify for the ATP Finals. Berrettini has never reached an ATP Masters 1000 Final and it will be a tough task to win the entire tournament with challengers like Rafael Nadal, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Alexander Zverev, etc in the draw.

For Schwartzman, a Paris Masters final will guarantee a spot in the ATP Finals. Berrettini’s result won’t matter if Schwartzman can go long in the tournament.

Berrettini would hope that Schwartzman is ousted out of the tournament in the early rounds. If Diego Schwartzman exits the tournament in his opening rounds then an appearance in the final would suffice for the Italian. And if Berrettini loses out in the early rounds then Schwartzman will almost confirm his ticket to the ATP Finals.

Both the players are in the same half of the draw. Berrettini could face Schwartzman in the semifinals. So their potential match up will be the match deciding their qualification scenario.

With momentum on Schwartzman’s side, he looks a huge favorite to go to London and play his first ATP Finals. Berrettini’s bid to reach his second successive ATP Finals looks likely to fall short.

Read More: “Going to Do Something Special”: When Roger Federer Precisely Predicted Andrey Rublev’s Breakout Year