156 players have headed to Kentucky for the second major of the season. Barring 16 LIV golfers and 21 club professionals, the PGA Tour has the largest representation. And the bettor’s favorite also comes from the Jay Monahan-led circuit. The PGA Championship returns to Valhalla for the fourth time. The last time it was played in Kentucky in 2014, Rory McIlroy chased down Phil Mickelson to claim his second Wanamaker trophy. 

McIlroy once again looks threatening after a dominant performance last week. But the Scottie Scheffler threat still looms large. Before the second major of the season kicks off on Thursday, here are the top five PGA Tour pros who might have the broadest smile on Sunday.

Scottie Scheffler

Four victories in the last five appearances. No. 1 in SG: Total, SG: Off the Tee, SG: Tee to Green; SG: Approach to green and scoring average. The 10-time PGA Tour winner is on a different stratosphere this season, and whatever short-game travails he had earlier have been erased with a mallet putter. 

Scheffler will hit the greens after almost a month’s absence. Unless that impacts his game, there is no weakness in his game that can stop him from increasing his major tally to three. Scheffler seems confident that the hiatus hasn’t put a spanner on his major plans.

Rory McIlroy

McIlroy has an obvious advantage. The Ulsterman is top-notch off the tee. McIlroy ranks 4th in strokes gained off the tee, 6th in tee-to-green, and 2nd in driving distance (avg. 316.8 yards). All that will work in favor of the 26-time PGA Tour winner, who has been on an agonizing major drought since 2014. That last major victory came at Valhalla, the last time the PGA Championship was hosted here. 

The course has gone through some changes, mostly in the grass and the length, but the strategy for players remains the same. McIlroy hit 49 greens in regulation at Quail Hollow, the second-best of the tournament, and gained six strokes off the tee compared to the field. Valhalla measures 7.609 yards, rewarding players with long and accurate tee shots.

Xander Schauffele

Yes, Schauffele hasn’t won since July 2022. Yes, at clutch moments, Schauffele’s game has let him down. Like last week. Like a few months ago at THE PLAYERS. Which is why he ranks below Scheffler and McIlroy. However, Schauffele has shown staggering consistency, notching eight top-tens this season, including two runner-ups. 

The seven-time PGA Tour winner is second in scoring average, eighth in SG: Off the Tee, and 7th in SG: Approach to Green. But Par-4s at Valhalla often turn into a deciding factor, and Schauffele’s par-4 scoring is second-best in the Tour at 3.92. 

Ludvig Aberg

Another major debut is on the cards for the Swedish International. Aberg has already knocked off five top-10s this season. The 24-year-old’s biggest strength at Valhalla is that the course suits his game. The one-time PGA Tour winner is a long driver of the ball, averaging 307.7 yards on tour.

Secondly, despite being a rookie in the Majors, Ludvig Aberg showed poise and composure at Augusta National, not unlike seasoned pros. Consider the recovery from a double bogey on the par-4 11th with a par save and two consecutive birdies. Valhalla should be an easier task than ANGC for a first-timer. As for his Wells Fargo withdrawal, that evinces more of his maturity to prioritize what matters most in his career—to stay fit at the Majors. 

Wyndham Clark

Last year, Clark entered the PGA Championship as the 31st player in the world. This year, his OWGR rank is third. It’s been a fast rise to the top for Clark, who has been the primary challenge to Scottie Scheffler twice this year. Clark is 3rd at driving distance, averaging 313.8 yards with the longest club in his bag. 

With four top-tens this season, the most recent of which came at the RBC Heritage, Clark is a formidable force at Valhalla. The 30-year-old shot over par in all of his four rounds at Quail Hollow, but in Kentucky, his power on the driver will give him some advantage over the field. 

Aside from the top five, Max Homa and Collin Morikawa will be right in the mix. The former has two top-10s in his last two majors. Morikawa ended his surprisingly below-par performance at the Masters, followed by another top-10 at the RBC Heritage. It seems another top-10 in a major is on the cards for the 2020 PGA Champion.