“I’m liking my chances going into the weekend,” predicted Rory McIlroy after delivering an impressive second-round 69 at the DP World Tour Championship. It’s easy to see why. McIlroy has already won this prestigious event twice, in 2012 and 2015, and with his current form, he’s positioned well for a potential third victory at Jumeirah Golf Estates. A win here would not only earn him $3 million but also 2,000 points in the Race to Dubai rankings.

But does he even need those points? With 4,997.66 points already in hand, McIlroy has put himself in a position where he could claim the Race to Dubai title even without winning the season-ending tournament. Here’s why: The Race to Dubai rankings are based on points accumulated throughout the season, and McIlroy has already exceeded the threshold to be eligible for a share of the US$6,000,000 bonus pool. In fact, he’s currently sitting comfortably atop the leaderboard, and his margin is so significant that it nearly guarantees him the title, even without lifting the trophy in Dubai.

If McIlroy finishes second, he will earn 1,335 points, and with a third-place finish, he’ll receive 752 points. Given that he already has nearly 5,000 points, even a second or third-place finish will likely push him well past the 6,000-point mark, ensuring his spot at the top of the rankings. This makes it clear that McIlroy doesn’t necessarily need a win to secure the Race to Dubai title—he just needs to maintain his position near the top of the leaderboard.

​Will Rory McIlroy be able to maintain his position?

While McIlroy is in a commanding position, there is still one player who could potentially close the gap—South Africa’s Thriston Lawrence. He sits right one spot behind McIlroy on the leaderboard with 3212.64 points. So can he be a threat to McIlroy’s position? With a significant margin of 1,785.02 points, Lawrence would need a win at the DP World Tour Championship to have a chance of surpassing McIlroy.

However, even a win for Lawrence might not be enough. For him to catch McIlroy, the Northern Irishman would need to finish outside the top 11, which seems unlikely, considering McIlroy’s consistency and form this season.

McIlroy, with 4,997.66 points, only needs to finish solo 11th or better at the Earth Course, where 12,000 Race to Dubai points are available to clinch the title. ​So while Lawrence’s potential victory could narrow the gap, McIlroy’s position remains strong. Unless McIlroy experiences an unusual slip-up, it seems his grip on the Race to Dubai trophy is secure.