Rory McIlroy’s Depressing PGA Tour Form Might Not Turn Devil at the Players Championship

Rory McIlroy fans are baffled. Perturbed and concerned too. The Northern Irishman kicked off the season with a runner-up and a top-spot finish on his home circuit. That blistering form has gone MIA on the Stateside, however. Four events in one-and-a-half months have yet to yield a better spot than T21. 

But heading to TPC Sawgrass, McIlroy has history on his side. PGA Tour analyst Ron Klos came up with an intriguing dataset noting down the winner’s patterns in the last few years. And, guess who emerged as the favorite to nab the $4.5 million winner’s paycheck! 

The surprising stats that put Rory McIlroy ahead of the curve

Among ten winner’s trends that include top-five finishes in the previous seasons, most recent performances, and even tee times, Rory McIlroy came out as one of the only two players ticking all the boxes. The other one is Russell Henley, who tied for the fourth spot in the Arnold Palmer Invitational. McIlroy’s record at TPC Sawgrass in the last five years has surprisingly put him ahead of others.

Whereas, only three players fit nine of the ten trends: Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Hideki Matsuyama. Last week’s winner, Scottie Scheffler fits into eight trends. Interestingly, Scheffler’s entry is the only second time a reigning world no. 1 is heading to TPC Sawgrass as a defending champion. The last time, it was Rory McIlroy in 2020, but that event was postponed, and McIlroy went on to miss the cut later.

While Scheffler did scorch Bay Hill with a putter that has only recently gone hot, the 27-year-old has to fight against all odds. No one has ever defended their Players Championship title. In fact, only six players in the history of the tournament have hoisted the swinging golfer trophy more than once, with Jack Nicklaus leading at three.

Notably, McIlroy was the leader in the top tens, score to par, SG: tee to green, SG: approach to green, and SG: off the tee heading to Bay Hill as well. However, we only got a glimpse of that vintage McIlroy on the moving day where he blazed the back nine matching a scoring record. Heading to the Players, the 24-time PGA Tour winner has his own problems to fix. 

How has McIlroy performed at the Players Championship before?

The Northern Irishman’s Sawgrass debut in 2009 resulted in two rounds of 74 & 77. McIlroy went on to miss the cut at his next two outings as well. Interestingly, in his next three attempts at TPC Sawgrass, the Ulsterman netted top-10s in each. However, Rory McIlroy had to wait a few more years to snatch his first silverware in the par 72, 7275 yards layout. The victory in 2019 came despite his two consecutive rounds of 70 on Saturday and Sunday. Last year, McIlroy missed the cut after shooting 76 and 73 in the first two rounds. 

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The four-time Major winner needs to turn the clock back at Sawgrass. Currently, he ranks 67th in SG: total (0.347) and 1st in SG: off the Tee (1.251), but 135th in scoring average (70.27), 152nd in SG: approach to green (-0.522), 124th in greens in regulation percentage (67.41%) and 129th in SG: putting (1.791). McIlroy has been paired with Viktor Hovland and Jordan Spieth on the 1st tee.

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