Rory McIlroy is on the hunt for his elusive fifth major. Unless that happens in Royal Troon, it will truly be a decade since his last major (August 10, 2014). But can he pull it off in South Ayrshire? What do his Open Championship records say?

The 2007 Open Championship was McIlroy’s major debut. The Ulsterman tied for 42. It took him another seven years to lift the claret jug for the first time. On the other hand, McIlroy has played at the Royal Troon only once. The Northern Irishman finished at 4-under on Sunday, settling for a tied fifth in the 2016 iteration.

Notably, since then, Ulsterman has finished outside the top-10 only twice. Barring a missed cut in 2019 and a T46 in 2021, McIlroy’s worst finish was a T6 last year. Interestingly, the last time he missed the cut, his scorecard had a 79 and a 65. At the Open, McIlroy’s best shot came twice, in 2018 and 2022. 

Six years ago, the Ulsterman tied for second. But in all fairness, the 2018 Open was truly an ‘open’ one. The stairway to the top was accessible to many, and if you remember, even Tiger Woods grabbed a share of the lead. McIlroy, too, was in the mix with five others, with four holes left to play. However, Francesco Molinari picked up two birdies late in the round to separate himself from the pack. 

Another four years passed before Rory McIlroy was in contention again. In between, he failed to book a weekend spot in 2019. 2022 was when the four-time major winner felt he was really close. As an overnight leader, the expectation was that he would capitalize on that, especially when his co-leader Viktor Hovland faltered. Rory McIlroy hit all the greens in regulation, reaching 20 feet from the pin on seven occasions. None, however, resulted in a birdie. 

McIlroy could only watch as two Camerons—Smith and Young — wiped off his lead with two spectacular rounds. The Aussie struck a lethal blow with five consecutive birdies to card a historic back-nine 30. 

McIlroy conceded he did just about everything right, but should’ve done more. On any other day, it might have crowned him the champion, but not when a competitor decides to make a course record. That was, however, only the start of his major setbacks on both sides of the Atlantic. Yet, he has the odds on his side this time around. 

What explains the bookmaker’s bid on Rory McIlroy?

The Ulsterman has gone through similar heartbreaks twice, each more severe than the other. A large section of netizens have lost hope. Strangely enough, he is still the bookmaker’s second favorite, after Scottie Scheffler. He is ahead of Bryson DeChambeau, Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, and Ludvig Aberg. 

Perhaps, it’s the longevity that offers the faint hope of a resurrection. McIlroy has turned himself into a machine of consistency. He has seven top-10s from his last 11 major appearances. Outside of majors, McIlroy sniffed victory four times on the PGA Tour in the last two years. In the last eight starts, the Northern Irishman has finished outside the top 15 only once. 

Stats do back McIlroy’s bid for the Claret Jug. However, numbers only do so much. The Ulsterman was yet to miss a single putt under 3 feet this season. Then he missed it on the 70th hole in Pinehurst No.2. How well the four-time major winner can handle clutch moments like this will determine his major fate.