Is Rory McIlroy going to take Xander Schauffele‘s spot? It was the summer of 2024 when the two stepped onto the Valhalla Golf Course. McIlroy was the second-best golfer in the world while Schauffele was playing catchup to him and Scottie Scheffler. Unlike the Irishman, the Californian had also not won a single major in his career. But that all changed in a 4 day period as Xander Schauffele won his first major, the 2024 PGA Championship. That was also when he surpassed Rory McIlroy.

No, Schauffele didn’t win his 27th PGA Tour title. It was only the 8th win of his career. But with that victory, Schauffele became the 2nd highest-ranked golfer in the world. He dethroned McIlroy from the spot and set his sights on Scheffler. But things seem to have taken a wild turn nearly a year later.

After holding the second place for nearly a year, it seems that Xander Schauffele is going to lose it next week. And who is he going to forfeit it to? None other than Rory McIlroy! The European’s victory at the 2025 AT&T Pebble Beach tournament helped him gain more points than his rival. However, McIlroy still had lower average OWGR points than Schauffele. But that will change on March 3, 2025.

Unfortunately, Schauffele hasn’t been able to go toe-to-toe with Rors as he is recovering from an injury. The current world no. 2 has been suffering from a rib injury since late 2024. He got it treated after The Sentry 2025. This led to him missing out on all the PGA Tour events since then.

However, if Xander Schauffele does come back for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational next week, then he will get the opportunity to win his second spot back. We’re up for a rollercoaster of a ride on the Official World Golf Rankings if Schauffele ends up winning the signature event next week.

What are the chances of Xander Schauffele winning the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational if he does return to the course by then? Let’s compare his and McIlroy’s records in the signature event.

Have Xander Schauffele or Rory McIlroy won the Arnold Palmer Invitational before?

When it comes to Xander Schauffele, his 9 PGA Tour wins don’t include a triumph at the Bay Hill Golf Course. He has appeared in the event only 3 times in his 10-year career. Schauffele’s best performance in the Arnold Palmer Invitational came in 2020 when he finished T24 with a 5-over par 293. Interestingly, he has faired better in the event when he is ranked lower. In 2023 and 2024, Schauffele managed +1 and par respectively. That was not enough for him to rise up the rankings as he finished T39 and T25 respectively.

Comparatively, Rory McIlroy has played the Arnold Palmer Invitational 10 times. His visits to the Bay Hill Golf Course have rewarded him with 1 win and 1 runner-up in a total of 6 top-10 finishes. McIlroy won the 2018 Arnold Palmer Invitational with a mammoth 3-stroke lead against the field. When Schauffele was trying to keep up with the leaderboard in 2020, the Irishman was only 4 strokes away from the eventual winner, Tyrrell Hatton.

Based on these records, it’s fair to say that Rory McIlroy has the advantage at the Bay Hill Golf Course against Xander Schauffele. McIlroy is also on a better run in 2025 after his win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. With Schauffele missing the events due to rehabilitation, we can say that McIlroy has a better shot at winning the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational and going further away from the former on the OWGR leaderboard.

Who do you think will perform better at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational? Rory McIlroy or Xander Schauffele? Place your bets in the comments section.