The infamous final-round 80 in 2011 still haunts many golf fans to this day. Rory McIlroy had looked completely unstoppable for three days at Augusta National, opening with rounds of 65-69-70 to build a four-shot lead. Then came Sunday’s collapse. His tee shot on the 10th hole bounced between cabins, rarely seen on television. Triple-bogey. Then the bogey at 11. Double-bogey at 12. He plummeted from first to finish, tied for 15th place with a shocking 80, the worst final round by a 54-hole leader in Masters history. Since that heartbreaking collapse, McIlroy has come agonizingly close multiple times.

His stunning final-round 64 in 2022 earned him a runner-up finish, matching the lowest final round in Masters history. He’s recorded seven top-10 finishes in 16 appearances, including four top-5s. 2025 was supposed to be his Green jacket year. Will it still be? With just nine days before the 2025 Masters, the one he was to enter with great momentum, winning two titles, McIlroy is battling a right elbow injury.

The one that surfaced during his T5 finish at the Houston Open. Despite posting an impressive final-round 64, he admitted the injury has been bothering him throughout tournament play. The Northern Irishman plans to undergo treatment during his week off before heading to Augusta, where his scoring average stands at 71.60 across all rounds played. This unfortunate timing has sparked particularly harsh criticism from golf analyst Brandel Chamblee.

“To continue this Devil Wears Prada theme going a little bit further, I would say that Augusta National is the Miranda Priestly to Rory McIlroy’s Andrea Sachs,” Chamblee declared during an NBC conference call Tuesday. His cinematic comparison didn’t end there. “It is literally his nemesis. It brings out the worst golf in Rory annually that we see.” No argument there. The 2011 collapse is proof. Most recently, in 2023, he missed the cut, and then in 2024, he finished T22. Not impressive for the golfer if his stature.

Chamblee pointed to McIlroy’s statistical deficiencies at Augusta as evidence of deeper issues. “He annually underperforms there. He hits on average about 42 greens. On average, the winner hits about 52.” This ten-green difference represents a massive disadvantage in a tournament where precision is paramount. In his 2022 runner-up finish, McIlroy hit only 44 greens compared to winner Scottie Scheffler’s 51. These numbers help explain why McIlroy has yet to complete his career Grand Slam, a feat achieved by only five players in history: Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Gary Player, Ben Hogan, and Gene Sarazen.

The issue, Chamblee argues forcefully, is primarily mental rather than physical. “You can’t just act like this is any other golf tournament,” he explained. “Just look at the last six years, what Rory has done in the first round. The winner here averages sixth place after the first round. Rory has shot 71, 72, 73, 76, 75, 73 the last six years to begin the Masters. That’s mostly mental.“ These slow starts have consistently put McIlroy behind early.

In 2022, despite his final-round 64, he opened with a 73 that left him ten shots back after day one. In 2020, his opening 75 required three subsequent rounds in the 60s just to climb back to a T5 finish. This pattern forces him to play catch-up golf on Augusta’s treacherous layout, where aggressive play often leads to costly mistakes.

Chamblee is not the only one to say that McIlroy lets the Masters get to his head. Jack Nicklaus thinks the same. Nicklaus thinks it’s just a matter of McIlroy believing in himself. “I still firmly believe that Rory will win the Masters; he’s just too good not to. You just gotta get him out of himself. You know that’s the problem,” he said at the 5 Club podcast, earlier this year.

Despite Chamblee’s grim assessment of McIlroy’s Augusta struggles, not everyone on the NBC panel shared his pessimistic outlook. The conversation took a decidedly more hopeful turn when another respected golf analyst weighed in.

McGinley offers a more optimistic outlook on McIlroy’s chances

Former Ryder Cup captain Paul McGinley sees things quite differently from his fellow analyst. He believes several factors are aligning perfectly in McIlroy’s favor this year. McGinley highlighted that McIlroy has already won two significant events with what he called his “B game” in 2025, showing his ability to triumph even without his best stuff.

“The biggest challenge for Rory is the mental one,“ McGinley acknowledged on the same conference call. But he expressed genuine confidence in McIlroy’s preparation with renowned mental coach Dr. Bob Rotella. “I know that Bob Rotella has been a huge influence on him in the last 18 months, and I think he’ll have him very well-prepared now.” Their partnership has already yielded positive results, with McIlroy showing improved mental resilience in pressure situations throughout 2024 and early 2025.

McGinley also pointed to the current form of McIlroy’s main rivals as another advantage. He noted that Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele aren’t at the top of their games, while LIV Golf stars Jon Rahm and Bryson DeChambeau haven’t won on the Saudi-backed league in 2025 either. “This is not his first rodeo going into the Masters working together,” McGinley said confidently, believing that 2025 truly could be the year McIlroy finally claims the elusive Green Jacket.

Even Chamblee found room for optimism despite his harsh criticisms. He believes McIlroy’s recent equipment change to a softer ball could finally solve his Augusta issues, especially with approach shots. “There has never been a better week for him to win the Masters, never,” Chamblee concluded, suggesting that all the pieces might finally be falling into place for golf’s most tantalizing career Grand Slam quest.