Can you believe we’re already at the fourth Signature event of the season? Feels like just yesterday Hideki Matsuyama was tearing it up at The Sentry, setting records and dropping jaws. The Japanese pro managed to score a 35-under par 257 to beat LIV pro, Cameron Smith‘s lowest-ever score. Soon around the next month, Rory McIlroy returned to the PGA Tour. The Irishman kicked off his campaign for the season with a victory at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. What is interesting about both these events is, that they were limited field events, they didn’t have a cut.

Then the PGA Tour stars traveled to the Torrey Pines Golf Course for the Genesis Invitational. In challenging conditions, Ludvig Aberg beat Scottie Scheffler, Matsuyama, and McIlroy to win his second PGA Tour event. However, this time around, after the first 36 holes were completed, there was a cut in the 72-man field. They were reduced to the top 50 and ties, and anyone who was within 10 strokes of the top of the leaderboard. That means, only a total of 54 golfers survived to move to the last two rounds of the event. And the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational will also have the same format.

If it’s still not clear enough, yes, there is a cut at the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational. So the top 50 and ties and players within 10 strokes of the leader make it to the second round. At the end of round 2 in 2024, the Signature event had 6 players tied at the top spot with a score of -7. Hence, apart from the top 50 and ties, anyone who had a +3 or better also made it to the list.

The Signature event has had a cut since it was first played in 1966. Earlier, it was known as the Florida Citrus Open Invitational where Arnold Palmer‘s closest friends, Jack Nicklaus, finished, tied for second. However, the PGA Tour did change the format of the event in 2024. During the age of Nicklaus, Palmer, and Player, the Signature event had a 144-player field. That continued till 2021 when Bryson DeChambeau won the last 144-player Arnold Palmer Invitational. The PGA Tour decided to cut it down to a field of 120 in 2022. However, that too lasted only 2 seasons as the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational had a field of 69 golfers. And in 2025, the tournament will feature 72 of the top players in the PGA Tour.

The difference in the 2024 field and 2025 is only dependent on how many golfers qualified for the tournament on merit. Assuming that the likes of Rickie Fowler or Jordan Spieth would have finished solo 4th or better in the 2025 Cognizant Classic, then the Arnold Palmer Invitational would have had a 73 or 74-player field featuring either one or both of them respectively. Now that we know how the format works, let’s see who are the favorites to win the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Potential favorites for the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Out of the top 10 golfers in the world according to the OWGR rankings, only 3 have managed to win the Arnold Palmer Invitational. And one of those 3 is ineligible to play in any PGA Tour events at the moment. That’s right, it’s a LIV Golf player.

When you think of past Arnold Palmer Invitational winners, Bryson DeChambeau might be the first name to pop up. After all, he powered his way to victory in 2021. But as of March 3, 2025, he’s ranked No. 11 in the world, which keeps him out of this top-tier conversation. Then there’s Tyrrell Hatton, the fiery Englishman who tamed Bay Hill in 2020. But he’s not in the field this year, either. That leaves two heavyweights standing tall—Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy.

McIlroy, the four-time major champion, was the first to etch his name on this event’s trophy in 2018, dazzling fans with his signature power and precision. Scheffler, on the other hand, has turned Bay Hill into his personal playground. The world No. 1 won here in 2022 and stormed back in 2024 to reclaim the title. Now, he’s looking to go back-to-back. With these two giants eyeing another victory, the stage is set for a thrilling battle at Arnie’s Place. Will McIlroy add another win to his storied career, or will Scheffler cement his dominance once more?

Other than them, Jason Day is also an ex-champion who will take the field at the Bay Hill Golf Course in Florida. Who do you think will win the 2025 Arnold Palmer Invitational? Share your views in the comments section.