Looking at Justin Thomas‘s remarkable feat in the second round of THE PLAYERS Championship 2025, exuded winning energy. The man matched the course record at TPC Sawgrass after an incredible 10-under-62. In fact, he nearly broke the record had he not made the mistake on the 18th for a bogey. But, that was not the case as his accurate ball-striking only got him a 4-under par 140 at the end of Friday. Thomas had managed a 6-over the previous round and his performance before the weekend was to only make up for his mistakes. The Louisville local did make a record-breaking jump from T130 to T29 on the leaderboard but was still far away from the top. Eventually, he ended the tournament at T33, 10 strokes from the top.

Unfortunately, that has been the story of Justin Thomas. He shows glimpses of pure ball-striking brilliance and then disappears into the background only 24 hours later. Consistency seems to be his worst enemy as he has failed to win a single title since 2022. That’s what keeps him from becoming one of the best golfers in the world at present.

In his 12 years on the PGA Tour, Thomas has managed 8 runner-ups and 13 third-place finishes. In total he has 55 top-5’s on the leaderboard. How many of them did he lose because of inconsistency? Quite a few we would say. His downfall in the 2023 Fortinet Championship saw him drop from 1 stroke off the top to 5th. In fact, his 2022 PGA Championship win was also tainted with a terrible third-round 74 that led to playoffs. This just shows that Thomas is always a risky bet even when he is dominating. And that’s what the crew of the Golf Channel Podcast recently discussed as they reflected on his recent performances.

Rex Hoggard & Todd Lewis were on the Golf Channel’s YouTube talking about three players who haven’t faired well recently. First on the list was Justin Thomas as Hoggard asked Lewis what he thought of the 31-year-old’s recent form at THE PLAYERS Championship 2025. Lewis said that he believes Thomas’ game is “not quite where he wants it to be,” reflecting on the roller-coaster of rounds he had in the flagship event. The analyst clearly pointed out that “he’s got to be more consistent,” suggesting that he can’t just keep having such drastically opposite rounds.

Hoggard also chipped in saying “If you find a way to make 10 birdies (he actually made 11) like he did on TPC Sawgrass under those conditions, your game’s probably in a pretty good position.” Making the birdies is indeed an easier job than avoiding the mistakes, at least for the pros. And that’s exactly what the reporter stated; “We hear players talk about this all the time. If you make the birdies, the easy part is to get rid of the mistakes.” If Thomas had stuck to this mentality then he would have probably challenged Rory McIlroy for the title at THE PLAYERS Championship 2025.

So, let’s assume Justin Thomas didn’t make any mistakes at THE PLAYERS Championship. Then what will his round look like as compared to Rory McIlroy’s? Let’s analyze.

Rory McIlroy vs. Justin Thomas without the faults: a speculative analysis

Beginning with the champion, Rory McIlroy, he had a score of 12-under par 276. THE PLAYERS Championship 2025 winner had 20 birdies and 10 bogeys throughout the four rounds. Without the errors, McIlroy would have simply had a score of 20-under par 268.

At the other end, Justin Thomas had quite a dynamic round for the worse. He had 14 bogeys, 2 double bogeys, and 1 triple bogey. All in all, that brought his score down by 21 strokes. What’s surprising is, if Thomas had only a few bogeys, his 23 birdies would have still been able to at least be on par with that of McIlroy’s. Just goes to show how major of a difference every added stroke can make. The 31-year-old could have possibly been at the top of the leaderboard. But he finished at T33 instead.

With the Valspar Championship under way, Justin Thomas definitely will try to take a short at the title and go for his first title of the season.