In just five months, the PGA Tour will crown the Rookie of the Year for the 2024 season. Last year, out of the four nominated for the decorated Arnold Palmer Award, it became a close race between Eric Cole and Ludvig Aberg. And despite going winless his maiden season, Cole earned the prestigious award and became the second oldest winner of it at the age of 34. Interestingly, Aberg has seen a rise even without the Arnold Palmer Award on the PGA Tour. The Swede pro has taken the 6th rank on OWGR because of his many top 10 finishes, including two runner-up finishes at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and then at the Masters.

This year as well, five up-and-coming golfers are vying for the Arnold Palmer Award, just as Aberg did in 2023. But remember, the final winner depends on the PGA Tour members who have played at least 15 events in the current season. Their votes will decide the ultimate winner, regardless of the victories the rookies have in their bags. So, who are the top five candidates for the 2024 Rookie of the Year?

1. Matthieu Pavon 

The 34-year-old pro became the first-ever French golfer to win on the PGA Tour since it started in 1985 as he clinched the Farmer Insurance Open’s trophy. The one-time PGA Tour winner drained the dramatic 18-foot birdie on the final hole to defeat Nicolai Hojgaard by one stroke and lift the trophy.

And he didn’t stop there. Following his victory week, Pavon carded 3rd place at the weather-shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Moreover, he was T12 at the 88th Masters and finished T5 at the U.S. Open. Being 13th and the highest-ranked rookie on the FedExCup Standings, the French pro presumably has a higher chance of winning the Arnold Palmer Award.

2. Nick Dunlap

It was a historical sight at the La Quinta Country Club as the crowd roared and Nick Dunlap came out to be the winner of the American Express. The 20-year-old became the only player since Phil Mickelson in 1991 to win as an amateur. Soon after his win, Dunlap turned professional and started adjusting to PGA Tour life.

After that win, Dunlap carded his first top 10 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic in Detroit as he finished at T10. The 20-year-old is in the field of the John Deere Classic and has a chance to improve his results and his FedExCup rank of 87th.

3. Jake Knapp

Even the world No. 2 pro, Rory McIlroy, complimented the 30-year-old for his gameplay when he finished T4 at the Cognizant Classic. The Northern Irishman said, “He could definitely be a star. It looks like he’s got the full package.” The appreciation was fitting as Jake Knapp carded this stellar top-5 finish right after his victory at the Mexico Open at Vidanta.

The 30-year-old stands 44th on the FexExCup standings and is the only one after Pavon to have better finishes as a rookie. He finished T8 even at the CJ Cup with Byron Nelson, and since then, he has tried to turn up with better results.

4. Micheal Thorbjornsen

Although Michela Thorbjornsen is yet to win on the PGA Tour, he has been on a similar trajectory as Ludvig Aberg, who nearly dethroned Eric Cole from taking the Rookie of the Year Award. Thorbjornsen charted the PGA Tour University rankings and joined the Tour mid-season as he made his debut at the Travelers Championship.

He finished T39, but his illustrious amateur career is a testament to what he can do. The 22-year-old is in the John Deere Classic field, where he finished T17 last year. Just one push to victory will solidify Thorbjornsen’s chance of winning the Arnold Palmer Award, as he will have better chances in the fall season too.

5. Alejandro Tosti

It all comes down to Alejandro Tosti’s potential, rather than what he has achieved on the PGA Tour. Before entering the Tour, Tosti secured six top-10s and a victory dance at the Pinnacle Bank Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour, which ultimately gave him the PGA Tour card for the 2024 season.

Even though he hasn’t won on the PGA Tour yet, Tosti came close to tasting a victory when he finished T2 at the Texas Children’s Open. The 28-year-old has missed the John Deere Classic cut, making it the 8th one of the season. Tosti has been struggling to card scores like he did at KFT in 2023, but he will have more chances at the diluted field of the FedEx Fall Series later.

All five players have been fighting tooth and nail to perform better on the PGA Tour in their maiden year. Their performances in the remaining season will determine the winner, and it could literally be anyone’s game, as even Cole surpassed Aberg without a victory on his side. Who do you think will be the Rookie of the Year 2024?