Predictions for Hungarian GP: Are Ferrari F1 No Longer the Dark Horses at Hungaroring?

Despite a wobbly start to 2021, Ferrari seem to have found their groove. With Charles Leclerc finally getting on the podium at the British Grand Prix, they trail McLaren by just 15 points in the constructor’s championship. Their progress comes as a pleasant surprise given their disastrous 2020 season.

In fact, Leclerc held the lead in Silverstone for a majority of the race despite Ferrari being slower than Mercedes. With the Hungarian Grand Prix this weekend, the Maranello-based outfit could fancy their chances of upsetting Red Bull and the Silver Arrows.

Can Ferrari upset the established order of Mercedes and Red Bull in Hungary?

Ferrari finished the 2020 season with just 131 points. 10 races into 2021 and they already crossed that mark with 148 points. While their status as a championship-contending team took a big hit after 2020, they look to be on the road back to the top starting with this season.

Leclerc took pole positions in Monaco and Baku. Although he couldn’t convert them to race wins, his teammate Carlos Sainz finished on the podium in Monaco. This displayed their competitiveness on street circuits which aid low-downforce setups.

The Hungaroring has a reputation for favoring low-downforce setups over the years. However, the modern F1 car has changed the way drivers negotiate the track. In fact, Lewis Hamilton‘s dominance at this track speaks volumes about how Ferrari pale in comparison to a top team at this track.

Despite their success in Silverstone, Sainz believes this weekend could be a tough outing for them. He said, “If you look at Monaco and Baku there are second or third gear corners, but Budapest nowadays, with these crazy high downforce cars, you have a middle sector where you are fourth or fifth gear all the time.

“So it’s not a pure low speed track like it used to be in the past. I don’t think it’s going to be such a good track for us.”

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Leclerc and Sainz think they will finish behind the top two teams this weekend

Despite the improvement of the SF21, Sainz believes Red Bull and Mercedes will come out on top this weekend. He said, “I do think that it’s a great opportunity to be right behind Red Bull and Mercedes, but downforce is still king and we see from data that these guys are still ahead.”

Leclerc also admitted finishing behind both teams would be a good result. “We are in a good mood, but I feel like going for the win in Budapest might be a bit optimistic. So realistically I think I will be happy if we are just behind the two top teams.”

It’s not rare to see a team downplay their chances, especially when they are yet to win a race. However, a Ferrari crossing the chequered flag first in Hungary could be a more realistic possibility than ever before in 2021.

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